7+ point lead

Regardless of all that is happening there is no way McCain wins being down 7 points. It is true that it is the electoral college numbers that will decide the election but a 7 point advantage tips too many states Obama's way.

Poll numbers tighten at the end (some argue that they are manipulated until the end when showing your guy winning for most of the time and then trying to be accurate at the end is the best for a pollster) historically and it might happen here, however, Zogby states that it could turn and be a blowout.

It could be a blowout, though much can happen in a week. From where I stand it seems a very tall order for McCain to win. If it gets near a 3 point Obama national lead, he might have a slim chance. It just seems a little too far out to pull it off for McCain.

I will make a prediction when we get closer.

Put a fork in it?

The McCain campaign has problems since it has become far behind Obama's in the polls. More troubling is that the shift has come largely from seniors and independents. Another thing is that Palin has become a liability to McCain in the latest polls. With the economy driving the polls could you imagine Romney addressing our crisis verses McCain or Palin? There was no way to see when this all would come down but Romney might have saved McCain.

Is it over? Not yet, anyway. Too many things can happen but it is unlikely that anything will happen that could move the polls 10 points.

I do want to add: Don't believe all that you hear and only half what you see.

Can McCain win?

There is so little time for McCain to win. He is clearly behind and even though numbers are starting to narrow in the polls things are stacked against McCain.

McCain might benefit from the Bradley effect (voting against a black candidate while telling pollsters you will vote for him) but I think that will prove to be negligible. We just didn't see much of it in the primaries. New Hampshire stands out as a possibility but it will take far more than New Hampshire voting McCain for Obama to lose.

From my perspective only a very significant event could put McCain over the top. Something like a terrorist attack, a tremendous controversy or moral lapse on Obama's part would be required. If Tony Rezko pointed out something illegal (and gave evidence) you might see something. Joe the plumber may move votes a percentage point in the Rust Belt but it will not get McCain elected.

I believe that he needs something bigger. Obama is very close to closing the deal with just enough voters and McCain can't put enough distance between himself and this administration (who the voters blame for most of our ills).

Only two weeks from Tuesday and we may have the most liberal government since the 1960's.

McCain's last stand?

Tonight is the last debate, but how much will it matter? The Dow Jones Industrial average is more followed than the election and this is killing McCain.

Would some on Wall Street manipulate the market? Wouldn't be hard if you had enough money. sell one day and buy the next, over and over. It would take billions to do this but if you had enough you could get the computer buying and selling going and, guess what?! Obama is Prez.

Is this possible? Hard to say, but if enough billionaires wanted to do it they could. Hope it isn't true, but who knows.

McCain has a tall order and only prayer will get him in, it would seem. Bigger surprises might happen. Especially if ACORN gets nailed in enough states.

A small turnaround?

The one thing that seems to have happened since the VP debate is that Obama's lead has stopped growing. There are some polls that seem to suggest that it has slightly reversed towards McCain.

Tonight's debate will be watched by far more than watched the first debate since it is not on a Friday like the first one was. Can McCain help himself tonight? Sure. This one is a town hall type meeting and favors McCain's style. Will it be enough? Unlikely, unless Obama gets a "deer in the headlights" moment or just bombs a question.

As it stands now Obama is well ahead and unless McCain/Palin do some real damage (or Obama) it is a tough road to win for McCain.

Is the race over?

Technically no, however it is very close to being over. Even though there is still nearly a month left Obama has a very commanding lead in popular vote, the swing states and the most important, the electoral college polls.

Why? The economy and McCain's handling of it is foremost. Obama doesn't know any more about the economy than McCain but McCain handled it by appearing with knee jerk reactions to everything that happened. It may not be what happened but that is how it appeared. Obama looked more presidential. Remember this that voters are strongly leaning Democrat. The election hinges on their trust of Obama. If Obama gets over that threshold he wins. In the last two weeks he has accomplished that and short of a significant tide he will be our 45th president.

Also, Palin has not been able to stem the tide for McCain. That is a lot to ask of a VP candidate but she might have done it had it not been for the above facts and her poor interviews. My guess is that she will be the Republican front runner in 2012. She might want to wait until 2018 to run against Hillary, unless Obama falters by 2012.

Is there any chance that McCain can win? Of course, but I wouldn't bet on it. The hill has become very steep. Slinging mud will bring those numbers closer, I would think, but even that is no guarantee.

I will say this that 27 days in elections can be a long time and if any serious charge comes against Obama or there is a significant terrorist or international event things could swing back McCain's way but don't count on it.

Palin bringing them in

60,000 showed up at the Villages in central Florida to see Sarah Palin. That is the largest crowd of the year for the Republicans. She has real star power and has energized Republicans in a way not seen in quite some time.

In '04 fear motivated the Right. They felt Kerry would make us velnerable. Now it is clean house in Washington and Sarah is leading the way. There is something about her "frontier woman" appeal that is contagious. It is a Obamamania in reverse. She is bringing new life to a discouraged party. As things settle down with the economy, expect to get a huge amount of Sarah news floating around. People just want to see her.

In many respects Obama is old news, Sarah is new news. The things to watch are an October surprise of news that hurts her or the possibility that people are bored of her by election time. We'll see. I'm guessing that she isn't boring.

It ain't over till it's over

Congress is starting to get political again (surprise). The Dems and the President may not see eye to eye on the bailout.

We'll see how things go tomorrow, but hold on to your wallets.

US financial big buy

Much is going to be made of the US Govt bailout of the banking system. It could prove to be as large as $1 Trillion, that is 1,000,000,000,000 dollars. To understand how big that is would be to give $335,000 to every man woman and child in this country. If you have a family of four that would be 1 and 1/3 million. Not bad, you could live on that for a while, I would guess.

Before you get too mad, Rupert Murdoch made the point that it wouldn't surprise him if taxpayers don't end up paying a dime! What!? Why?

First, take AIG. The treasury is going to provide 85 Bil in loans. Those funds must be paid back. For that they (US Govt) gets an 80% share of a once $Trillion company. If things settle out, and that is very possible, the US makes out. Do the math.

Overall, the US may actually make money (that would be a first) because they are buying many investments that are poor today but could prove to be substantial in the future. For example, lets say that the US buys 500 Bil in housing, which a number of those houses are in trouble, or worse. They get them at 60% on the purchased dollar. They could conceivably go back to their original prices (most likely will within 2 to 5 years). If they reach 100% they just made a bundle. There of course are costs involved with carrying those properties for the space of 2 to 5 yrs, but they still did well for their investment.

Regardless, the Govt must make it painful enough that we don't go down this road ever again. This still has the potential of falling apart.

Markets respond big time

With a 400+ jump in the Dow things are looking up for today, anyway. Will it hold? That is anyone's guess.

The leadership of both parties in Congress, Hank Paulson of the Bush Admin, and Ben Bernake of the Fed all convened a meeting tonight to try and put this thing to rest, or at least get it on the right track. Will they succeed? That is anyone's bet. Why are they being so non-partisan? Two reasons, one they know this problem is bigger than one party and there is plenty of blame to go around, so they will do what they can to help stem this crisis. Secondly, and more important to some, they want to get back to their constituencies.

Job one is getting reelected. To be seen doing nothing at this time would bring too much political damage to them.

Country second!!!

Russia on the brink?

Much has been made of the meltdown on Wall Street and I won't comment much on it because there is just more info out there than is needed. However, little noticed in all this is that Russia is in a very difficult position.

The Georgian invasion, the rip off of British Petroleum's business in Russia and the fact that oil prices are diving are causing huge problems for their markets. Their major market tanked over 17% today. It was off at one point at 20%. That would be like a 2000, not the 504 that just happened, point drop on the Dow.

I wonder how much of that is related to the current crisis in markets and the pressure the west has been putting on them. I believe that the former is more significant, however I do not discount the latter. I believe that the West is punishing Russia and there is a warning to Putin: back off or we will crush your economy. Putin is wealthy enough to survive it but his billionaire buddies would be very upset. If much more happens he might need to start watching his back.

Unlike the US, Russia does not have much of an industrial base. Their infrastructure is pathetic and the vast majority of its income is from energy. It wouldn't take much to crush their banking system at the moment and it just may happen.

My guess is that Russia has been told to calm down or else.

UPDATE: Russian markets are slated to open tomorrow. A huge amount of rubles have been offered to soften any blows to its banking industry, but will it be enough? Markets normally don't respond well to being shut down. We will have to see.

New Update: Russian markets make huge comeback and this time they were stopped again. Monday will bring a much anticipated opening.

State changes All headed for McCain

Here is a list of all the changes that have happened recently in state by state polls. These must be very encouraging to McCain and discouraging to Obama. Each of these below show a change from what they were to what they now are. For example Minnesota was leaning Obama now it is a toss up. Also numbers on second line show the likely electoral votes if election were today.

Though these are all good for McCain the race is essentially a toss up. There is so much yet to go. His numbers nationally have receeded some just recently.

09/14 Minnesota Leaning Obama »»»Toss Up
Obama 207 - McCain 227 McCain +2.1

09/13 Indiana Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain
Obama 217 - McCain 227 McCain +2.4

09/11 Florida Toss Up »»»Leaning McCain
Obama 217 - McCain 216 McCain +2.5

09/11 North Carolina Leaning McCain »»»Solid McCain
Obama 217 - McCain 216 McCain +2.5

09/11 Georgia Leaning McCain»»»Solid McCain
Obama 217 - McCain 216 McCain +2.5

Race snapshot

1. The congressional races have tightened up significantly. With a generic Dem running against a Repub the numbers were favoring the Dems in double digits weeks ago. They have been tightening but have become much closer after the Rep convention (much in response to the Palin pick). One Gallup poll had the Republicans up by 5%. RCP average is about 3% for Dems. Pelosi and Reed are real nervous (not to mention the Daily Kos and netroots groups). Fear is probably a more accurate term.

2 Obama is on a slide that has not been righted yet. We should be seeing a contraction from the Republican bump of the convention and we are not. Though Obama still leads in the electoral count if you keep the tossup states in there the more significant thing is that McCain now leads by 20 points if you do not count tossup states. He was probably 50 behind a month ago.

3. Sarah Palin is under fire. She must be brought down by the Dems. She is a threat not only to Obama but to the Dems as a whole (Dick Morris argued this point strongly). She is America, the America that the MSM/Hollywood types despise, but the Reagan Dems love. I fully expect to see her pounded like Bork and Justice Thomas. It is going to get merciless. She does have this going for her, she is a successful woman and a very hard target to hit.

4. The parts of polls that really count are the internals. The one that is really hurting Dems is white women. They have greatly moved towards McCain. There are several others. Possibly as significant is that Republicans are far more engaged and frankly excited. Huge shift. Attacks on Palin will most likely energize them far more.

Note: Michael Reagan has many times stated that there would never be another Ronald Reagan
and told Repubs to get over it. He has changed his mind. He said that watching Palin he saw his dad wearing high heels. Amazing, and we are seeing many agree.

Could this all backfire on the media?

In some respects, the attacks have already backfired. As they blatantly dismissed her, a mediocre speech at the convention would have been lauded. Instead they set the bar so low (not my words) her fantastic speech seemed to surpass Obama (she's good, not that good).

Remember Rathergate? That was when CBS reported that Bush took off a month of flight school while people were dying in Vietnam? The story may have had some merit, but the obviously bias story that actually had forged documents took the story completely off the table. When anyone in the media tried to bring it up they were derided and scorned.

We may see a similar thing here with Sarah Palin. The media is just trying too hard to lynch the woman. It could easily backfire and if it does it will make Obama's and Biden's job much harder. Middle America hates this stuff.

If she has a good showing against Biden, regardless of what he does, she wins and they lose. She will be parsed and pounded after, but the debate will be over. You've seen her speak, anyone taking bets that she gets spanked? Not me. Biden will probably do fine, but he could go on one of his patented personal stories (he most likely will be warned at gunpoint not to do that) and blow the whole thing. The left is close to making Palin a hero. Unless there is some significant skeleton in the closet she will help carry or put pressure on nearly every swing state.

Never been an election season like this one. And I thought I would be bored by now.

The new hit job

The Atlantic, considered a very legitimate news source, has now been caught again in a blog smear job. The Weekly Standard nails them:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/09/anatomy_of_a_smear.asp

With the recognition of Woodward and Berstein waiting for any writer who is able to take down Palin or McCain, they are going to throw it all out there, hoping to be the first to find something. It is frankly eerie. As they run like savage wolves to kill her my gut tells me that this whole thing may get her (and obviously McCain) elected.

This same thing happened to Dan Quayle and Bush won 40 states. They went after the wrong guy (beat the living tar out of him though) Note:Palin is no Quayle, either. Palin may be the red flag that the media snorts after while McCain the matador watches them closely, all the while largely unscathed.

New York Times hit piece?

The NYT has an article that will probably do more to drive Evangelicals and regular folk towards, not away, from Palin and McCain. It is abundantly clear that the Times has voted and will continue to tar and feather Palin. It will build to a crescendo. As with all of us, there will be issues or perceived ones that will put her in a bad light. We all have them and they are going to Bork her (the whithering fire Justice Bork came under). They must wound her in the flyover states, so they will go after her in ways that Obama and Joe will never have to endure from them and the other left leaning media. Here she is treated like a woman neaderthal.

Read for yourself:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/06/us/politics/06church.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1220724449-fGClIk6J1CItLlpb56YgNw&oref=slogin

They are going to paint her as a religious freak (problem is that it will allow McCain to pound Obama with Reverend Wright-don't think that is dead).

Hurricane Sarah

Wolf Blitzer said it best "she hit it out of the park...". This has been a complete turnabout from the last few days. Palin had been rocked by bad press regarding her family, personal choices and her politics. McCain looked like he had made a strategic blunder of epic proportions.

After her speech Sarah Palin is now a threat to the Democratic ticket, and worse, a threat to Hillary Clinton. She was poised and effective. The base loved her and many are giving her a look that made some wonder why she wasn't at the top of the ticket.

I fully expect an onslaught that will exceed the one that took down Dan Quayle. Yes, his ticket won 40 states but he never was much of a threat after that. Watch for the reverse Bill Clinton treatment for a while: Bill was pounded early on by the media only to become its darling. She might see some nice treatment for a while (not the case early on, of course) but their will be a build up to destruction. Great time for prayers for Mrs. Palin.

Obama's speech

So much has been written on his speech by people far more insightful than me, little here will be spent discussing it. Amazing communicator, one of the best in the world and the best in politics.

One point though, the man is a very formidable force in politics and his ground game (the people that will be canvassing the US) could very well beat out Bush's 2004 effort.

It is an uphill battle for McCain but he put meat on the table for the base with his VP choice. Interesting times we live in!

McCain's VP choice

Well, McCain has secured Alaska's 3 electoral (red state till you're dead) votes in the same way Obama did with Joe for a state that will be blue unless the Russia invades the US state of Georgia.

Having stated that there is a measured risk here. She not only isn't well known she has very little experience with the big guns of the MSM. They are shooting for bear hoping they can get the rookie to mess things up.

She will put pressure on Barak to court women even more, though NARAL won't be endorsing her any time soon (check to see if Hell has frozen over).

She is very articulate, and is going to make Biden play Mr Nice guy when debating her, rather than a set of knives in the back with a smile in the front. Can't get those women any madder than they are.

Why drilling matters today

Check out this link by a professor, quoted by Investors Business Daily:

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=304557829281016

Explains the problem with what many are stating that prices will not be affected for years and why prices are coming down with oil.

McCain's VP choice

We're told that McCain is going to reveal his pick Friday. It appears that two of his choices have been vetoed, both Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman. The pro life lobby has stuck it to those two, but I'm positive that either would have prominent roles in the cabinet, if he wins.

It seems to me that Romney has the inside track. It is true that Romney has plenty of comments that will be used against McCain but there is a couple of glaring differences between Romney and Biden's negative comments against those they ran against. Romney never is shown stating that Obama would make a good president. Secondly, he also pounded McCain for being too liberal and not conservative enough. That doesn't hurt McCain with those that are still making up their minds.

Huckabee doesn't seem to be on this list and neither does Condi Rice. Pawlenty, may be there but I don't see that he rallies conservatives but could make Minnesota more likely to be in McCain's column. The fact is though, VP candidates rarely affect a race very much.

Romney also puts Michigan far more into play. His business acumen is probably the best of anyone that ran and his credentials are strong. He is also safe, in large measure.

Picking a woman could shake things up, but I'm not sure McCain wants things shaken up.

Obama's choice for VP

Does Biden help Obama? Well there is a few ways to look at this. For one, Obama didn't have any great options. Hillary would have given him a strong edge but she, and especially Bill, bring some real baggage and talk about a loose cannon, Bill could hurt Obama. I still think that Obama made a real mistake of not choosing Hillary.

John Edwards, we are told, made the short list. Can one imagine if the news of Reille Hunter would have hit today, instead of when it did. It is very possible that Edwards would have been Obama's choice. He speaks to Hillary's Reagan Dems. His wife's story along with his pushing for rights of the poor (though he ignored, or even disdained, his poor neighbors) would have been a better choice for Obama because of the change agent that he engendered.

Biden does bring three things, if not any delegates, and that is an ability to fight and the elder statesman that Obama clearly lacks, and has foreign policy experience. I wonder if he was chosen to help diffuse the Georgia crisis (and any further ones that might materialize) that has affected his campaign.

I must add this. Nearly no one in politics has the youtube trail of gaffes and problems that Joe does. He hit Obama nearly as hard as Hillary did and there is more than one complementary one of McCain. The comment back in '88 of lecturing a voter and that asked about his education is a classic, sure to be up there with the "scream". He tells the voter that he has a higher IQ than him and then goes about exaggerating his own education. He later had to retract some of it and it is all on tape. Does he really help Obama? We will see.

How to beat al Qaeda

This is an excellent article, filled with much wisdom:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/what_to_do_about_pakistan.html

Obama picks Biden

His best choice, over all. One problem is he doesn't bring in Hillary's God and Guns supporters, though.

New numbers and a new state in swing state catagories

Here are the new numbers:


6 Battleground States Obama McCain Spread

Ohio McCain +1.5
Michigan Obama +3.2
Minnesota Obama +2.6
Colorado McCain +0.5
Virginia McCain +0.6
Florida McCain +1.8

McCain has been slowly but surely picking up steam in the swing states. Currently he is competitive in Michigan and Minnesota. Those two are close to must win states for Obama, not just for his electoral vote count but for what those states have in common with other similar makeup states. If Obama loses one of those Ohio is sure to fall to McCain and that would put pressure on Wisconsin. Virginia and Colorado are very close but have recently switched in the average towards McCain.

It has not been a good month for Obama. It may seem an eternity ago but Obama has had a slow bleed since he went to the Middle East and Europe. Instead of looking presidential (he did to 200,000 Germans) he seemed to have made Foreign Policy a front page issue, where McCain certainly leads Obama. For Obama to lead he must make ground on the economy. It strikes me as obsurd to not see him pounding that like Clinton did against Bush. Of course there is no Perot to hammer the theme along with him this time.

The press has things wrong again. Conservative values are held by about 52-53% of the voters. As Obama gets vetted (exposed for his views and skeletons) he becomes more vulnerable.

VP announcements

Obama is about to announce his VP pick. The short lists for both have been discussed for days but it is probably safe to say that Obama has his pick ready. There will be an announcement made by text message to his supporters and the press very soon, I would guess. The name has been kept close to the vest and has not yet had any leak. A leak might be part of the strategy but we will see.

McCain may have his guy or gal also but it is entirely possible that he may have a strategy also that will be affected by who Obama picks. A sad but true part of the process that makes this more of a chess game than picking the best candidates. Winning is a contest and had been since our country started its election process.

I'm convinced that neither candidate wants things to become all about sound bites. That, though, the the reality of public races, the better the sound bite the better you do.

Obama will probably pick someone that is long on foreign policy, such as Evan Bayh, or Joe Biden. McCain's choice is harder to see at the moment. Will he go with the economic pick such as Romney or shake up the water with a pick like Tom Ridge or Condi Rice? We will be seeing the answer soon and expect that McCain will try and steal a little thunder from Obama with announcing his a day after. It is all about stealing each others headlines.

Cavuto states that Dems are defeated for Presidency

Neil is predicting a defeat for Obama, in fact is close to guaranteeing it. It seems so out of character for him I decided to put the link here:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/cavuto-democrats/

Still, I'm not yet convinced. There is still nearly 3 months left and that is an eternity in politics. Case in point: spent much time lately thinking about Reverend Wright, Obama's old preacher? Almost a non-issue. How about people bitterly clinging to their religion and guns or what about William Ayers? These became significant stories that have nearly disappeared. They may come back but they definitely aren't big news a couple of months after their revelation.

A tightening race

The election will be decided by the voting of about 10 states, known as swing states. The RCP average puts 6 of these states below in the closeness of the error ratio that compares the averages of the significant polls and averages them to see where things stand. As you can see that only Michigan is over 3% points, close to the normal 3 to 5% point error rate of these types of polling.

You can see how close the race is. Pennsylvania could fall into this, along with Nevada. Some other events could push some states toward one candidate or the other.

All said this is a very close race. Much will be decided in the next 3 months and a lot will happen by Labor day. Hold on to your seats it will be some ride.


Colorado McCain +0.5
Virginia McCain +0.6
Missouri McCain +2.3
Michigan Obama +3.2
Ohio Obama +0.5
Florida McCain +1.8

The election is about to kick into high gear

The Democratic convention starts in just over a week with the Republicans following soon after. In three weeks were are going to have the election in full swing. It might even be decided, more or less. What happens in August has had huge impacts before (one of many examples is that Swift Boat veterans made a commercial that brought up very uncomfortable memories of Kerry to veterans, cutting his legs out from under him).

Campaigns have set themselves up with this being about Obama. Change or weakness are the pictures that are being painted of him. The factors that I see at the moment are which of the bases are going to be most fired up for their candidate (or scared of the other) and where do the independents go.

Both are important. A lukewarm base can hurt. The independents will not be the only ones deciding this. Hillary's voters (and John Edwards) will also play a significant part. Her endorsement will ring hollow. Her heart is not with Obama, even with her game-face on for the convention. She still has some rather upset supporters. Eight more years might make her unelectable.

Obama, McCain to speak with Rick Warren

The prelude of the debates is held at a church, no less. Mega-church leader Rick Warren will be holding a double interview of the candidates this evening. They will be interviewed separate and will only see each other as ships passing in the night, so to speak.

This looks to help Obama most, though, it could help McCain with "soft" evangelicals, ones that are concerned as much or more with poverty, aids and Africa as abortion, school choice and national defence. McCain does not have these people in his pocket as Bush did.

Obama is trying to get the "bogey man" image that he is getting plastered with on talk radio, conservative pundits, and the internet. He will seek to come off as "one of them" or at least not to be feared.

McCain could come across as too critical of Obama and paint himself as an old angry man. That would hurt him with this group. They are evangelicals and they are most comfortable with Republicans, but are not lock step with them, especially now. He needs to come off as compassionate, which he has proven to be over the years.

Russia Departs?

Condi Rice has just hand delivered a "truce" between Georgia and Russia. It will be interesting how it all plays out but all things considered it is looking the best it has, so far. Bush will get little credit and much of the blame. It appears to me that he is going to have a short term poor legacy and a very good long term legacy, similar to Truman who has had the same.

The back room deals that put this together may never be known. One must believe that there were threats and carrots aplenty. One significant threat: the Winter Olympics are coming in 18 months or so to Russia (very close to the Georgian border). A boycott of that would hurt the Russians publicly and they are obviously sensitive to their standing in the world. Maybe the Russians will get to look at Bigfoot first, one never knows.

Back on a serious note, we have seen a very serious situation. Russia is looking for respect (Putin has seen to it that his people think they are dissed around the world, when the opposite has been true). He will have a significant downfall down the road (my prediction). Guys like him get caught and fall a long way.

The Russians appear to be leaving Georgia proper. Whether they actually leave the breakaway provinces is yet to be seen. Their "peacekeeper force" will probably be around for some time.

Georgia has been run by a US educated president (and advisers) who gets how western and free economies work. If he is given time they will see significant growth (they already are) and be a model for the other economies of the former soviet nations. Their success probably has part to do with the invasion of Georgia in the first place. Russia doesn't want western style governments close by, especially ones friendly to the west. They will continue to undermine them when possible, with another invasion here or there possible. Poland and Ukraine beware!

Dollar's rise

With the continued weakening of other currencies and in particular the softening of oil, gas and other commodities the dollar has had five good weeks. Much of that gain has been against the Euro and it probably will continue for some time with a blip here and there. Oil has continued its drop to $112 on the NY Mercantile. This will bode well for the US and Europe while hampering the oil producing nations. For one, it isn't helping the Russian bottom line.

It wasn't that long ago that oil reached $147 with +$200 looking a true reality. Short of some significant overseas developments (never count those out and those that benefit from them) oil could drop dramatically farther. There is too much of it at the moment in reserves around the world. Not near enough, if you ask me, though.

The developments could bring the economy's forecast up for the remaining months, maybe in time for election day. Still, there are some large hurdles ahead and the banking write offs are not done yet. We will certainly not see much relief in housing and autos until then.

The other side of the argument

Pat Buchanan gives the other side of the Russia vs Georgia conflict. Though I don't agree with all of this it certainly gives one a pause:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/blowback_from_bear_baiting.html

I want to balance Buchanan's comments with those of a editorial from the Economist. Looking at both of these will cause you to look at the bigger picture.

http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11921110&source=features_box1

McCain foresight

You can argue with McCain and several issues he holds but it would be hard to argue with his foresight. One might say that he was wrong on the war (history may yet vindicate it) but his judgement has been stellar since.

He wanted far more troops in the beginning of the conflict in Iraq. For all intensive purposes Al Qaeda would have been far less effective with boots on the ground and the Shiite death squads far less effective, if they even had existed.

Secondly, he stuck by the surge when it was rejected by nearly every other politician and most of the country. Not only was he brave to do this he was right on its effect. By the way, the surge was a strategy, far more than just more troops, put together by Petraeus and company with McCain part of the whole support process. The met and discussed stategy for its success.

He has been right about Putin. Dead right. While President Bush was giving him the benefit of the doubt, and our left and continental Europe (the UK is on a cold war footing with Russia after the hit on former Russians) enjoying muscle pics of him, McCain stated that when he looked in Putin's eyes he saw KGB.

These are not trivial and will come into the campaign. We will see these on display at the convention and after. Already this has come to affect the race and we will see more incidents that are going to cause a pause in those that might otherwise jump at Obama.

World events like the Georgian conflict will make a dent in this election and the greatly help McCain in the eyes of most independents and fire up the conservative base.

Obama is in more trouble than the polls show

This Russian incursion into Georgia will directly affect the Presidential election. Even with the distraction of the Olympics this has brought fear to many US citizens. Many of us lived with the fear of a war between the Soviets and the West. This is only going to help McCain. Watch the polls in the next week. I expect to see a slow move towards McCain and a bleed from Obama's campaign.

Also, check out this article from RCP. Tall order for Obama:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/why_barack_obama_will_not_win.html

Worthy of a read.

Will world events push the US for more Drilling?

As a general unease continues to creep into the US will pressure continue to build for drilling? If we see significant gas prices jump after the Russian adventure then you can bet we will see it increase.

Pelosi and Reed have already put together a plan with Congress to allow some drilling. Don't think for a second that they don't see what is going on. They know and have their own political agenda. They are going to increase their lead in congress (all signs point to this, however, things can change).

Their hope is that Obama will get elected and then they can drag the whole thing out until there is sufficient energy from other sources. Removing the ban on offshore drilling doesn't mean that Exxon is running out to sea to put up platforms in two weeks. There are going to be "extra permitting" that will be needed. It will takes years or decades to happen if they get their way. Their plan is dangerous enough, but now they want to sell oil from the strategic reserve to reduce the price of gas. It would affect prices but would also put us in a difficult spot if there was a significant disruption of oil. It is why we have it.

The Dems seem not to have learned anything from the Republicans. Keep playing politics and it will catch up to you. Job one for all politicians is to get reelected. They are setting the playing field to lose again.

Georgia and Russia at war

The Russians have provoked the Georgians to war. Russians have long wanted to control oil to Europe and to bring the former Soviet Union, if not together, at least, under its control. Taking on Georgia does both. If the former territories don't step up to the plate (they are going to need Europe and most certainly the US) and help Georgia there will be a slow chopping up of the rest of those countries.

Hitler did just this with Czechoslovakia.

On a related note, oil prices are sure to be driven up since a significant amount of oil goes to Europe through Georgia. Will the world have the guts to stand up to the Russians? I doubt it, but you never know. Western Europe should be looking long and hard at this.

Last comment on this. If the war continues then John McCain will be helped by all this. People just don't trust Obama to be able to handle such things. He doesn't have the experience to take on Putin (who really controls Russia, regardless of his stepping down). Could he learn? Of course, but like JFK with Kruskev, it will be on the job training. Americans will have a difficult time turning over the reigns to a young man that will need to be instructed in such things.

McCain may again be the beneficiary of world events.

Refused paternity part of the plan?

Rielle Hunter, the admitted mistress (supposed ex-mistress) of John Edwards, in the worst cover-up since Watergate, is refusing a paternity test for her child. There is no reason for this except to allow Sen. Edwards to gloss over his misconduct. As one CNN commentator mentioned, the whole thing does not pass the smell test. There is an understatement.

The mainstream media sat on this one for 10 months. Fox news has mentioned it but few others. It was completely ignored by some significant outlets. Reporters are now making mention of the story within the story, that since it was outed by a tabloid it couldn't be true. Well, not one to defend the rag the Enquirer, they have brought to light some significant stories over the years, for example the death of John Belushi and the girl who gave him the drugs. The major outlets just ignored it (or worse purposely buried it). The excuse was two fold: to protect Elizabeth Edwards and the checkered past of the enquirer. Neither should matter. Edwards and wife both knew the exposure that running a campaign has. You usually get caught. Edwards will now and forever be known as a hypocrite at the level of Eliot Spitzer.

One reason to not doubt the story is that the Nation Enquirer has lost some serious money to lawsuits. John Edwards could have owned the paper if they got this one wrong. Who in their right minds would have allowed a haphazard story about a US Senator, with a dying wife, a possible Vice Presidential pick and one of the most successful trial lawyers in the nation? It only makes sense if it was true.

Even Mickey Kaus from the Nation, hardly anywhere near a conservative, berated the MSM for ignoring this and stated the obvious: that had this been a conservative he would have been slashed and burned. Remember Bush's forged documents (ala Dan Rather) or McCain's tainted expose (ala NY Times, soon after they endorse him) regarding an affair of his (no evidence) right after he takes the lead in the republican primary. Bill Bennett's gambling might fit the bill also.

No one, until the ABC story would even give it the time of day. One wonders if the ABC story was a setup by Edwards to make the story lose some of its traction, picking the time and place of the exposure. Nice choice to confess the day of the opening of the Olympics on a Friday when the story will get buried over the weekend. Russia and Georgia going to war didn't hurt him either.

Career Over! He couldn't get elected librarian in North Carolina, since the papers there actually followed the story. Had he been the Dem candidate he would have cost them the election and still might have had he been the VP choice of Obama. All in all, a rough couple of days for the Dems. They, like all politicians, kill their own and should survive this debacle with ease.

Poor John, he may still get the girl and the baby in the end. It isn't working out as smooth and he thought.

His candidacy was founded on his love for a dying wife and the great husband he appeared to be. His political career ends with proof that he is none of the above.

Will there be a Zell Miller for either side?

Remember '04 and Zell Miller a GA Dem who just trashed John Kerry at the Republican Convention? To trash a candidate comes with some side effects. Ann Richards had one of the funniest engagements at the Dem convention against Bush 41. It would have been great as late night comedy but was rejected by voters because it was lacking any respect at an event that should have had it, along with the fact was that she was a Dem, he was Republican. Zell Miller was a Dem pounding a Dem. He so clearly linked Kerry to Ted Kennedy that he clearly damaged Kerry.

He got away with it, She did not. Let us see if we get one or two this year.
Lieberman could be one for McCain but so could Lincoln Chafee, among others, be one for Obama.

Where the election stands today

The RCP average of polling show only a 2.6% difference between the candidates with Obama on top. This doesn't show the swing state numbers or if one poll is likely voters or registered voters (likely voters polls are usually more accurate). Having said that there is no obvious reason that the race should be this close.

Recent history shows the Republicans being in the hole by 10 to 16 points by the beginning of summer in the race. The race then takes a change, usually some controversy. Swift boat or Willie Horton (rapist let go on a weekend visit under then Gov Dukakis) Geradine Feraro became an issue and cost Mondale serious points.

Dole could not get any traction against Clinton but still made up huge ground before the election. Plus, both he and Bush Sr had to deal with Ross Perot who kept Clinton from ever getting a majority.

With nearly everything breaking Obama's way why can't he get McCain off his back in polling? The answer is complex but starting with Hillary and continued by the McCain campaign is the doubts about Obama. 200,000 cheering Germans may play well in Europe but it doesn't lend any credence in Nebraska or Alabama. This election has become one of Obama.

There are other factors playing also. Energy is seen as being held hostage by the Dems. They are watching the polls also and there is a lot of nervousness out there. They have promised the environment movement quite a bit and will be seen as traitors to allow drilling. The environmental movement has wanted these energy prices for ages and they aren't about to give them up and mess with pristine areas. They seem to be fine with other nations that aren't near as cautious as we are, but they cannot control them, yet.

To me, Obama is in trouble. If he cannot shake McCain by the end of the conventions then there is going to be a real problem. There is just not the time to make Obama a statesman that crosses political lines and can show that his experience is up to snuff. The Dem convention will try to do that but his "lite" accomplishments just can't make him seem presidential.

Obama will probably stoop to serious attacks on McCain. That may backfire but he must bring doubts about McCain's judgment. Energy costs and the surge's clear success have put some serious points towards McCain and could help congressional races also.

McCain's changes

Obama may have a hard right turn lately to appeal to the independent masses but John McCain hasn't stood his ground on everything either (though no where near as severe, but he started near the middle).

His immigration stance has changed considerably with securing the border now taking the first precedent. He has "adjusted" has stance lately to keep the Hispanic vote from running to Obama. He even went so far as to mention that Spanish was spoken in Arizona before English. Frankly, it came across as pandering.

Obama in trouble?

How can Obama be less than 4 percentage points ahead of McCain in national polls? This is from the RCP percentage that averages all the major polls. He ought to be well ahead at this time. If we only look at the usually more accurate polls (Rasmussen and Gallup) the lead is only 1.5%. I know it is awful early for judging the election, but challengers to a party that holds the presidency need to be way up at this stage of the game.

National polling doesn't tell the whole picture and Obama is doing well when we look at the map that counts, the electoral college. But I assure you there is some real concern in Obama's camp tonight.

McCain is on the popular side of energy, working across the aisle with both parties, the surge (I don't suspect Obama will gain much from his trip to Iraq, but he might damper damage from McCain's ownership of the surge) and with his overall experience.

Obama has a bigger hill to climb than some imagine.

Congress has an approval rating at 18%. Bush at 31%. Not good tidings for either party, the the Dems have the edge.

Iran working to escape attack?

An Israeli TV station broadcast that Iran is trying to put their nuclear plan on hold to stave off attack and get the incentives that have been offered by Europe, et al. Mark my words, Iran is close to a tipping point that will get themselves attacked. We are talking weeks and months not years.

If Iran is attacked they will suffer serious enough damage to their economy, infrastructure, national pride etc. that it is hard to imagine the mullahs holding on for long. The patience of the people is growing thin as the promised relief has marginally materialized. The Mullahs know all this. If they can save face and fight another day, they just might (they will fight sooner or later)

Will it work? Possibly in the short term. The devil will be in the details. Will Iran give up their pursuit or will they just mothball it until a favorable time comes along? Don't know. I don't trust politicians to fix this, I expect them to try and get credit, whether or not the US and Israel (the western world for that matter) will be safer.

McCain shakeup

Steve Schmidt is in command now and things will be changing. This will be like a Drill Sergeant taking over the reigns of a corporation. Instead of 5 guys holding the reigns Schmidt will be holding the whip.

This seems truly needed when McCain's campaign was looking disheveled at best. He wasn't hurt much with the Colombian hostage crisis coming to an end either and him sitting there to greet them. Nice photo op.

Between the 4th and Labor day a whole lot will happen. Look for Bush to help McCain in several ways, especially in the area of national security. The President can do that. Look for Israel to do the same. Their government trusts McCain far more than they do Obama. In their minds Obama will say or do anything to get elected but what after? They don't know.

What will things look like at Labor day? Only God knows that one, but it will be different after both conventions.

Same as always?

There was real hope that this election would be something different. It is not. It looked like we had two candidates that would run their campaigns above the fray. It has become similar to all the ones before it, with the clear difference that every blow gets an immediate counter blow from the other camp. But all in all it has settled into a general election that is clearly antagonistic.

The McCain candidacy has been run like a regular election. He hammered Romney relentlessly, with fine line distortions of his comments and positions. He was the guy that stood out in congress, willing to hold to his convictions, even when it meant a pounding from his own party.

Obama truly started out different. He was above the fray. Way above for quite some time. Hillary's team moved him back to political earth. On top of that he has been wounded. He will bring to general. His clear rejection of public funding of his election shows that political expediency is more important to him than his convictions. As he moves closer to the center will he continue to move away from what he has articulated?

Time will tell. When it comes to how these will treat each other and the "facts" this is your momma's (generation) campaign.

Bush irrelevant?

Relations with North Korea are headed in the direction of normalization. With the N Koreans turning in their nuke documents to China President Bush has removed significant sanctions. If this brings N Korea to a place where they no longer threaten the world with selling off weapons and nuke technology this will be a huge boon for the president. If it goes south it hurts him.

President Bush, though, appears to have a coup and things appear to benefit his presidency and the world at large.

Judges helping McCain?

The newest judicial decision that affects this presidential race just was handed down yesterday. Conservatives have lost three key decisions: Gay marriage in California, Islamist terrorists getting US citizen rights and now we have the trifecta of Child rapist being removed from list of crimes than states can give the death penalty. Even though Obama came out against the last decision it still puts pressure on him.

Why? Because up to 3 Supreme Court justices appear ready to retire. They are appointed by the president and approved by the Senate. Obama will have a near rubber stamp with a Dem congress, though to radical a choice would invite a filibuster from Senate Repubs.

We expect another big one, which is DC's law on gun control. If that one goes for DC and against guns (it probably won't) you will have a groundswell of support for McCain who rejects activist judges who legislate from the bench. The Dems need those judges to get many of their plans to work. Just look at abortion and ecological decisions. How very different it would be if judges just interpreted the law.

Update: Team Obama just breathed a big sigh of relief, SCOTUS (supreme court) just gave gun control activists a big defeat. DC handgun control is removed in a person's home.

NYT hypocrisy?

The New York Times (through their magazine International Herald Tribune) would love to impeach a president, a VP and Karl Rove for allegedly revealing a CIA desk jockey, Valery Plame, yet they out a CIA agent that truly could face endangerment. They could have told the story without revealing his name but chose to. I won't do that on these pages.

They have become the front man for moveon.org folks and for many years the one pulling the strings on what made the nightly news for the MSM. Their hypocrisy is beyond disturbing.

Drill IV

This should be the last blog on this subject for a while (I think) but I'm not putting myself in a box just yet. This is now the most significant political subject in the race.
Anytime Charles Krauthammer speaks on a subject I listen:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/mccains_halfhearted_oil_soluti.html

The Dems sure don't get it. Here we have people crying out for relief at the pump and we get Congress spending time today on Scooter Libby and Scott McClellan. They are moving from shooting themselves in the foot to the head. Unbelievable!

A month ago it looked like they might be picking up several seats in Congress. Don't bet on it.

Starving millions

The energy crisis is not only a problem for developing countries but it is also put huge pressure on those countries to feed their people. The cost of corn has skyrocketed and starvation has jumped dramatically. There are many articles on this and I'm not going to link them. Google it if you please there is plenty of evidence out there.

Our policies are killing people.

Drill 3

Dick Morris weighs in on the importance of Drilling and energy as a whole. He has one of the best feels for the political winds and called the Dem race months before it happened with complete certainty. I believe he is right on here.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/mccain_scores_with_offshore_dr.html

Drill 2

"One nation today has plans to build almost 50 new reactors by 2020. Another country plans to build 26 major nuclear stations. A third nation plans to build enough nuclear plants to meet one quarter of all the electricity needs of its people -- a population of more than a billion people. Those three countries are China, Russia, and India. And if they have the vision to set and carry out great goals in energy policy, then why don't we?"

This is McCain's comments today on nuclear energy. Here comes the relentless pounding I spoke of on energy. The Republicans finally get it (or at least, finally, McCain) and the bombing run has started. Obama's team is too smart to let this go on forever, but they are taking a beating by "regular Americans" on this. The environmentalists who have had a stranglehold on this issue for 30 years are going to take a pounding also. The pendulum has started swinging back and it may swing very far.

The little person is being hit significantly hard. While economists talk about "core inflation"(inflation that doesn't take into account energy prices and food) being low the little guy pays a significant amount of money on both of those. Add to that GM and Ford are laying off those that make trucks and SUVs. Don't be surprised that McCain is doing so well in Michigan.

Here me out, the working Americans who ran after Hillary are listening to the Republicans. Next on the list: corn to ethanol will be another battleground. That will be especially true now that significant parts of Midwest farmlands are underwater. Not a good week for Al Gore and his buddies.

McCain says "Drill!"

McCain has landed on the "drill now" campaign. It is late but not too late. My suspicion is that he and the Republicans will pound the Dems with this until Nov (and later). If prices stay where they are at, or if they get worse, the Dems will need to do something to address this. Their base is strongly against new drilling will go ballistic if they push drilling, but what can they do?

Americans are outraged that neither party has dealt with this. It hadn't hit the fan because prices had been low for so many years, but that, obviously, is gone. The Republicans own this ground right now and it will take moving polls to change their stance but it is coming. Americans don't want oil derricks at the Grand Canyon, but they cannot understand why only 15% of the US can be drilled. What sense does it make to not be able to drill from 50 to 200 miles out off our shores? They wouldn't be seen from shore and could even be tastefully done like Long Beach, CA that makes them look like Hotels on islands, if ascetics becomes an issue. I want to see alternative fuels but short of some very significant breakthroughs we are stuck with gas and oil for the foreseeable future. Colorado's oil shale and massive coal production (which has become far cleaner) could change things, also.

PS Bush is putting the feet to the fire with Congress in the morning regarding offshore drilling and Gov Crist of Florida is changing his opposition to it. The Dems are in a tough place, trust me. Expect the Blue Dog Dems to really have a tough time towing Pelosi's line. They just might break from her.

The general election is going

Is it just me or does it seem like September in the election season. There is not just one story per day but many. The banter back and forth between the campaigns is huge considering it is June, think of it, June!

Obama has a website that protects him from defamation (I think it is a good idea and fits with his comments to be open in this campaign). It could come back to bite him, though, if anything is incorrect. The press would jump on it (Fox News, bloggers and talk radio, anyway). McCain has a small army checking on Obama and prepped for any response to a charge from his camp. To most Americans it is white noise, but it is going to get real pronounced as we get past the conventions. Well, maybe it'll get more noticed, anyway.

Nightmare scenerio

It is certainly worth reading about the nuclear proliferation issues that are upon us. So much evidence was around regarding the plans involving the Sept 11 attack that we shouldn't be asleep with the chance of it coming to our shores or the chance of nuclear blackmail. What would we do if there was a detonation somewhere else (or some proof) that a nuclear weapon could be on our shores. The panic would be devastating. One minute on Drudge...

Here is another article that ought to make us pause about the coming nuclear Iran:http://www.nypost.com/php/pfriendly/print.php?url=http://www.nypost.com/seven/06172008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/one_click_nuclear_shopping_115859.htm

We are dangerously close to having our nightmares come alive. I know that sounds very defeatist, but an attack like this would damage our economy, not to mention our will to protect our allies, for many years to come.

Drilling updated

Fred Barnes has a good, if not concise, piece on McCain and new drilling:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/225hregm.asp

Worth the read.

Welcome

I would like to welcome those of you that have visited the site for the first time. I am not putting it up for those who would like to have a view that is significantly different from the mainstream media.

The observations come from many sources, conservative and liberal, economic news sources and alternative press and blogs.

It is my hope to have a blog that is helpful to the average person who doesn't have time to digest the news and wants to have a quick "bite to eat" of the news without spending significant time reading multiple articles and spending significant time rummaging through various news sources for political and economic news.

Thank you,

I relish your comments

The long drawn out recession

One fallout of the congressional and presidential, not to mention Fed, policies of "fixing" the economy is that, it appears that, instead of a quick recession it has become a long slowdown. The second half of this year looked to be a quick recovery and that is fading away. The stock market has noticed this and it is significantly down.

I won't say that the bailout was a bad decision, yet. I'm reserving judgement until I've watched how it has played out. Glenn Beck was incensed at the Fed bailout of financial institutions but I believe that they were able to stop a "run on the bank" with several of these leading institutions. If that would have happened, we would be watching a debacle not seen since the crash of '29. I wouldn't lose any sleep over those that made millions off the unsuspecting, but I would hate to see our country's economy crash over the decisions of a few white collar criminals.

One thing became obvious to this conservative: There is a real need for governmental oversight of businesses, in particular banking and insurance. Not regulation that stifles business but directs it from destructive practices. Many people are hurting, some very savvy, from what is going on.

We may have a longer way to go than what we have recently hoped.

Globar warming?

This article is well worth reading:

http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/19842304.html

It seems that global warming is going to be challenged for some time and I hope the truth comes out soon. Our economy along with the world's food supply is being damaged. Substantial amounts of people are being affected.

The floods in the Midwest are being blamed on global warming. A 500 year flood is happening right in Iowa. The problem with blaming it on global warming? Where do you think they got the name for "500 year flood"? It is the high flood stage that happens within a 500 year period. This has happened before, in fact, before the invention of the internal combustion engine.

As time goes on, I'm starting to believe that this whole thing is manufactured to give the benefits of the many to the few. I hope Al Gore has gas for his person aircraft.

The drilling fallout

The Republicans are frustrated. Here they have a pet political argument, oil drilling in the US just ripe for the picking, and McCain doesn't support it. It seems every US citizen seems to understand that alternative energy sources aren't coming on line in volume any time soon and McCain won't touch drilling with a 10 foot pole.

This is an underhand pitch that the Republicans could hit out of the park. Rarely does any party have such an advantage, yet little or nothing will happen in the presidential race, it appears, to take advantage of it. Could you just imagine a candidate putting out facts and figures about drilling in the US on a Power Point slide show how 85% of our country cannot be drilled? Showing where off the coast of Florida the Cuban's are opening up tracts for drilling while US companies are frozen out? You could leave out ANWR and still pound the Dems with this. May happen in the congressional races but doesn't look like McCain will touch it with anything other than rhetoric and American ingenuity that can bring us green power before it is predicted to make much of an impact.

Too bad, we need to drill, build nuclear power plants and build refineries. Nearly every one in the world can see this, amazingly we cannot or will not.

Another contrast

This is one amazing race, in its own way. Here we have one candidate that was awful at a very important speach (right after Obama wins needed delegates), he is not trusted by his base, is loved as a person, yet his party is disliked by the MSM. On top of these, he's too old and frankly isn't very likable.

On the other hand, he debates well, is a true war hero, loved by many independents, and has reputation as a man of character. Maybe his best feature as a Republican is that he has a reputation as not being a Bush clone.

He is pitted against a Chicago politician who has been bloodied by his associations(and a audio bite exposing him as an elite), is a true northern liberal, his wife has been stained with some comments that appear to have an anti-American, with little experience, has no significant political actions and is not a great debater (can he take a punch?).

He, on the other hand, is a person of color who has beat the Clintons, has an amazing organization, is adored in a way that borders on fanaticism, is charming with phenomenal oratory skills. Along side of all this, is a Dem, which clearly is an advantage today.

I truly believe that coming events, the direction of the economy, fuel costs in particular, Iran and other world situations, are going to be the deciding factors of this race. The odd thing with the economy is that it favors Obama but energy costs could favor McCain if he plays it right. The Repubs are going after the Dems on the votes they are trying to get to the floors of Congress.

Only a fool (or a prophet) would dare predict how this election will end. We may have much clearer vision (averaged polls) that may let us know, but there are simply too many things yet to come.

Peace in our time?

If you think that the economy and energy are going to be the only shows in election town consider these new developments:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080606073645.fjrccoo1&show_article=1

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080606102240.q43gjbot&show_article=1

If Israel attacks Iran there are going to be significant ramifications. Hezbollah will get to work quick causing havoc against Israel and US interests. Hezbollah is far more dangerous and organized than Al Qaeda (for the reasons that Al Qaeda is the focal point of the "War on Terror" and Hezbollah has state sponsors Iran and Syria). Iran might be hesitant to take Israel on directly, but they will try and make Israel's life hell. Iraq will become worse for us, also. Iran would see any attack on their nuclear facilities as an act of war by the US. They might even try and shut down the Gulf, though that might have more severe ramifications than they might wish.

There is no easy answer for this new development (has there ever been an easy one there?). Israel is probably going to take this on since it most affects them and politically their government can take the heat. Behind the scenes they have many backers that will condemn the act while cheering wildly behind closed doors. The European governments along with the Saudis, Kuwaitis and other moderate Arab governments will all breath a sigh of relief.

Do you think that people who despise W will like Bush any less if this happens? How could they? US planes may even have a role in the whole thing (shocking!). Middle-eastern governments do not play chicken very well. Afghanistan and Saddam (twice) had easy outs from our perspective. They didn't get into power by being diplomats. They would rather die honorably (their version of honorable) than show outward weakness.

Islam in America

To see how our enemies use our freedoms against us, one need only look at this article:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,363821,00.html

Clearly, this man advocates the killing of US troops and is a significant proponant of bringing radical Islam to the english speaking world. Al Qaeda has used the freedoms of the west to spread their message while using rhetoric that matches talking points of those that are in opposition to the western goverments current policies. Remember Bin Laden using Kerry's talking points? They couldn't disagee more with Kerry, but they will use what is at their means to bring down the west. They wish to do to us what they sought to do to the Soviets (Bin Laden has taken credit for the fall of the Soviet Union).

As we worry about our economy and election, many of our enemies aren't taking a break. The two candidates have radically divergent views on how to deal with this. This issue is not going away anytime soon.

Obama wins

It is truly a historic time when an African American can win a major party's nomination. If we look at how different times were 44 years ago the prospect is practically staggering. Obama is probably a statistical favorite, though it is going to be close for some time, if not the whole race. The lead will change hands more than once before this is all over.

It will be interesting to see how the meetings last night went between Hillary and Barack. Will there be a vice presidency involved? We'll see but I doubt it. I'm guessing we'll see a certain politician from Virginia. If Obama wins Virginia, McCain would be in serious trouble indeed.

California in play?

It is premature and a stretch but California might come into play in this election. You probably think that is crazy with Obama up by 12 points in the RCP average. I'm hardly predicting a victory for McCain but it might get close enough that Obama must put significant resourses there, not to mention his time spent on the ground, in the state. Why, since it is solidly Dem? Two reasons, first is that there is going to be a constitutional ballot for gay marriage. McCain may not bring out Orange County but gay marriage will. Secondly, less mentioned but also important, is the strict guidelines that have been brought about in the state by a court ruling recently regarding homeschooling. Homeschools are an endangered group there at the moment. There is not a more militant conservative group in the nation. They are not going to stand idly by while judges carve them up. They aren't big fans of McCain, but that is changing quick.

These two issues are going to motivate the unmotivated. They are going to go for McCain. He won serious points going on Ellen's show and respectfully disagreeing with her about gay marriage. It was code for "I don't hate you but I don't approve of your lifestyle". Brilliant, for most of Ellen's listener's weren't going to vote for him but it made all the major news programs. A real coup.

Anna Quindlen from Newsweek stated that the gay marriage debate was over and love won. She is completely clueless. It is over?! Tell us that in November. I will make this prediction: California is going to overturn this courts decision. It will probably be decisive. If Oregon couldn't do it how in the world is California going to do it? On top of all that, people do not like judges telling them their vote was meaningless. This vote may even be more lopsided than the last one involving gay marriage. This one is far more significant, it gets put into the California constitution.

This will help McCain, and not just in California.

Obama's church decision

To watch Obama's Q&A session regarding his decision to leave the church was painful. Having done years of public speaking it was obvious that his mind was continually searching for answers to questions. At times he seemed completely unable to articulate what he wished to say. It actually reminded me of the rambling debate that involved Perot's choice for Vice President (Remember Admiral Stockdale?). I actually had to turn that one off. I got close on this one also. If anyone thinks that Obama is going to be a shoe-in during the debates they are in for a real stomach ache.

Obama has become clearly gun shy. He looks "handled" as in having political handlers. You get gun shy when everything you say is parsed and thrown back at you. If the guy could only sit there and make speeches we'd be discussing how big his margin of victory would be. That is clearly not the case regardless of what Bob Beckel is saying (don't get me wrong, he is one smart guy, but he is a homer for the Dems).

I'm making this prediction: short of some disasterous event in McCain's run, Obama will be toast if he doesn't get back to what he does best, and that is stand, unchalleged, making oratory history. The kind that sends a chill up Chris Matthew's leg. Thanks to Hillary that is a taller order today.

McCain's challenge

McCain has one tall hill to climb. He has been chosen as the Republican presidential hopeful but does he have a chance? Many seem to think that he does, but he is no shoe in. Unlike Obama and Hillary he has not faced significant fire yet. There are going to be some significant attacks (though I suspect not near as bad as if Hillary had been the nominee). His positive/negative numbers will be affected soon enough.

If McCain is elected he will be the first elected that didn't have full support of the conservative base. Bush 41 was conservative enough for them the first run, considering that he was Reagan's vice president and had convinced them that he was one of them. McCain has not done that. There is not that excitement that has been there in the past. He does have this going for him, though. Repubs are far more likely to vote than Dems when they aren't excited. Also, older voters have made up a quarter of the voters. That is going to play into McCain's favor.

The Dems will pull together but it is not happening near fast enough for their leaders. Hillary has not reigned in her people yet and it is not looking like it is coming soon. Hillary wants to be prominent and most certainly will do what she might to pull off this nomination (ain't happening). She clearly must sense this but she wants to be the next nominee with full support of the Dems. She will make herself entitled to the next nomination. Dem leaders will promise it to her if she will jump fully behind Obama.

Obama's fork in the road.

Obama clearly looked like a candidate like no other for the early part of his run. He was going to take the high road, regardless of the consequences. Hillary's campaign put him at the crossroads. Jump into the mud or walk your high road with our mud on you and no mud from you on Hillary. It was tempting, no doubt, and looked like he could do it for a while. Jeremiah Wright, Bill Clinton's pounding, Frisco elite moment all put Obama in a place of decision. His handlers wanted him to attack. He could have followed his spoken principals or fling mud with the best of them. He chose to fling mud. His candidacy has taken on the character of all presidential contests. I see no difference. He is no longer a man who came down to help us but is like the previous group of Dem choices for president. I see no way he can bring that back. He is standing on his principals, all right, and they are in the mud under his feet!

Obama being Obama?

Obama states that he will head to Iraq when the primary is over. He's been challenged by McCain to do so and it is to his credit that he allowed McCain to get him to go. Why? Because most politicians would and will do exactly the opposite of what their opponents challenge them to do. I haven't seen the video but the humility that he displayed in the beginning might be making a comeback. Not sure that can last, though. There is going to be whithering fire on both sides and politicians become, well, politicians when getting battered.

Dumb economics

People usually buy things at the wrong time. They now buy stocks that have gone up significantly already. They bought real estate above where the market is today, since it was headed up. As Mr. Rothchilds was quoted he " bought when there was blood in the streets and sold when there was joy in the streets". A large portion of people buy after most of the uptick in the value of something has already happened. Real estate and certain stocks are going to make some money in the next couple of years. Most will be on the sidelines while the best deals will be taken. There will still be some deals, but not the real money making ones.

Along with this advice - get out of debt! If you have a $1300 a month mortgage, you are probably paying about $250 in taxes and insurance per month and maybe $50 to $100 if you have a 30 year mortgage and have had it less than 5 years. So let's say that you are paying $1000 in interest. Nice write off, right? Yes, but you are losing all the rest of the money. What if you were saving that $1000 or better investing it? You start building wealth and fast.

Another thing, why do some people make such good money on real estate investments comparatively? Because, when a property appreciates you often haven't put in near as much and the value but you get the percentage return on the whole of the property.

You have no idea what I'm talking about. Let me tell you one investment I made. I bought a $106K lot in 2005. I put down money that I took out of a home equity loan. I paid payments for 9 months on an interest only loan. I sold it after 9 months for 205K, a $99,000.oo increase, in only 9 months! My investment was just the payments and two sets of closing costs, since I used home equity. I probably made about $90K when it was all said and done (paid uncle sam handsomely, though, 15% or so). OK so I walked with $77K more or less. Total out of pocket? About 22K. Be very careful when trying something like this. You can get burned and many are getting now who bought at the height of the market. Rarely can real estate outrun salaries for very long.

Is our economy living or dying?

There, of course, is trouble in the economy. How bad it is will certainly be debated for some time, however there is some good news. First, we are technically not in recession currently. That means, in this case, that the economy is still growing, but at a very slow pace. In part, because it grew so fast the last couple of years there must be a slowdown sometime. That is the nature of markets. Also, interest rates are very low. Money is very cheap at the moment, as long as you can qualify. On top of those the unemployment numbers are very low historically as we speak. These all are important for economic turn arounds.

One of the bad things is inflation in food and energy. They are off the charts and will not be coming down significantly for some time (though I would argue that oil is nearing a bust phase, judging by the numbers that are floating around).

Significant also is the slow real estate market. There are many on the sidelines looking to see if we've seen the bottom of the market. Since the banking crisis is being sorted though real estate may not be near as bad as some are predicting. After the election we should see improving numbers there. There are some crazy good deals out there. Some people will make killings soon enough.

Recent bad news has kept the stock market down also. There are some very wary people out there.

This has spilled over into the presidential race and clearly helps the Dem at the moment. We'll see in a couple of months what that effect is.

Is our economy living or dying?

A more racially divided nation?

One of the coming debates is whether or not we will see a more, not less, divided nation when this is all over. If Obama loses this will certainly be heard above the din, especially from the lunatic fringe. It is clear when you have 90% of one race supporting one of its own (albeit 1/2 black, 1/2 white) and blue collar whites lining up 2 to 1 for Hillary, or so, after South Carolina when the race thing seemed to start up.

A loss by Obama will be seen by many around the world that the US is still prejudiced. Truly, there is still racism in this nation. It has been curtailed considerably over the last 40 years to the point that a black politician has a legitimate shot at the presidency. There are going to be those that will not vote for him because he is black and there will be many that will do the opposite. Whether one cancels out the other will be, to some degree, seen in exit polls.

More than likely the decision on who our next president will be is going to be decided by the economy, international events, mistakes by the candidates (or any skeletons unearthed) along with motivated voters. It is a mixed bag at the moment.

Note: The ones who have the most to lose in this election are the race baiters. Those who have made a living at exposing any and all prejudices to their race. If Obama wins and is truly able to bridge that gap, he immediately becomes the the most prominent leader of the black movement. This will not go over well in some camps. This may be a reason that Rev. Wright stated that he would be meeting with Obama to go over some things if he wins the presidency. He has an agenda that he wants Obama to follow. This election has been like no other and there will be an interesting election aftermath.