Obama in trouble?

How can Obama be less than 4 percentage points ahead of McCain in national polls? This is from the RCP percentage that averages all the major polls. He ought to be well ahead at this time. If we only look at the usually more accurate polls (Rasmussen and Gallup) the lead is only 1.5%. I know it is awful early for judging the election, but challengers to a party that holds the presidency need to be way up at this stage of the game.

National polling doesn't tell the whole picture and Obama is doing well when we look at the map that counts, the electoral college. But I assure you there is some real concern in Obama's camp tonight.

McCain is on the popular side of energy, working across the aisle with both parties, the surge (I don't suspect Obama will gain much from his trip to Iraq, but he might damper damage from McCain's ownership of the surge) and with his overall experience.

Obama has a bigger hill to climb than some imagine.

Congress has an approval rating at 18%. Bush at 31%. Not good tidings for either party, the the Dems have the edge.