The one thing that seems to have happened since the VP debate is that Obama's lead has stopped growing. There are some polls that seem to suggest that it has slightly reversed towards McCain.
Tonight's debate will be watched by far more than watched the first debate since it is not on a Friday like the first one was. Can McCain help himself tonight? Sure. This one is a town hall type meeting and favors McCain's style. Will it be enough? Unlikely, unless Obama gets a "deer in the headlights" moment or just bombs a question.
As it stands now Obama is well ahead and unless McCain/Palin do some real damage (or Obama) it is a tough road to win for McCain.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Monday, October 6, 2008
Is the race over?
Technically no, however it is very close to being over. Even though there is still nearly a month left Obama has a very commanding lead in popular vote, the swing states and the most important, the electoral college polls.
Why? The economy and McCain's handling of it is foremost. Obama doesn't know any more about the economy than McCain but McCain handled it by appearing with knee jerk reactions to everything that happened. It may not be what happened but that is how it appeared. Obama looked more presidential. Remember this that voters are strongly leaning Democrat. The election hinges on their trust of Obama. If Obama gets over that threshold he wins. In the last two weeks he has accomplished that and short of a significant tide he will be our 45th president.
Also, Palin has not been able to stem the tide for McCain. That is a lot to ask of a VP candidate but she might have done it had it not been for the above facts and her poor interviews. My guess is that she will be the Republican front runner in 2012. She might want to wait until 2018 to run against Hillary, unless Obama falters by 2012.
Is there any chance that McCain can win? Of course, but I wouldn't bet on it. The hill has become very steep. Slinging mud will bring those numbers closer, I would think, but even that is no guarantee.
I will say this that 27 days in elections can be a long time and if any serious charge comes against Obama or there is a significant terrorist or international event things could swing back McCain's way but don't count on it.
Why? The economy and McCain's handling of it is foremost. Obama doesn't know any more about the economy than McCain but McCain handled it by appearing with knee jerk reactions to everything that happened. It may not be what happened but that is how it appeared. Obama looked more presidential. Remember this that voters are strongly leaning Democrat. The election hinges on their trust of Obama. If Obama gets over that threshold he wins. In the last two weeks he has accomplished that and short of a significant tide he will be our 45th president.
Also, Palin has not been able to stem the tide for McCain. That is a lot to ask of a VP candidate but she might have done it had it not been for the above facts and her poor interviews. My guess is that she will be the Republican front runner in 2012. She might want to wait until 2018 to run against Hillary, unless Obama falters by 2012.
Is there any chance that McCain can win? Of course, but I wouldn't bet on it. The hill has become very steep. Slinging mud will bring those numbers closer, I would think, but even that is no guarantee.
I will say this that 27 days in elections can be a long time and if any serious charge comes against Obama or there is a significant terrorist or international event things could swing back McCain's way but don't count on it.
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