Monday, October 6, 2008

Is the race over?

Technically no, however it is very close to being over. Even though there is still nearly a month left Obama has a very commanding lead in popular vote, the swing states and the most important, the electoral college polls.

Why? The economy and McCain's handling of it is foremost. Obama doesn't know any more about the economy than McCain but McCain handled it by appearing with knee jerk reactions to everything that happened. It may not be what happened but that is how it appeared. Obama looked more presidential. Remember this that voters are strongly leaning Democrat. The election hinges on their trust of Obama. If Obama gets over that threshold he wins. In the last two weeks he has accomplished that and short of a significant tide he will be our 45th president.

Also, Palin has not been able to stem the tide for McCain. That is a lot to ask of a VP candidate but she might have done it had it not been for the above facts and her poor interviews. My guess is that she will be the Republican front runner in 2012. She might want to wait until 2018 to run against Hillary, unless Obama falters by 2012.

Is there any chance that McCain can win? Of course, but I wouldn't bet on it. The hill has become very steep. Slinging mud will bring those numbers closer, I would think, but even that is no guarantee.

I will say this that 27 days in elections can be a long time and if any serious charge comes against Obama or there is a significant terrorist or international event things could swing back McCain's way but don't count on it.

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