Regardless of all that is happening there is no way McCain wins being down 7 points. It is true that it is the electoral college numbers that will decide the election but a 7 point advantage tips too many states Obama's way.
Poll numbers tighten at the end (some argue that they are manipulated until the end when showing your guy winning for most of the time and then trying to be accurate at the end is the best for a pollster) historically and it might happen here, however, Zogby states that it could turn and be a blowout.
It could be a blowout, though much can happen in a week. From where I stand it seems a very tall order for McCain to win. If it gets near a 3 point Obama national lead, he might have a slim chance. It just seems a little too far out to pull it off for McCain.
I will make a prediction when we get closer.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Put a fork in it?
The McCain campaign has problems since it has become far behind Obama's in the polls. More troubling is that the shift has come largely from seniors and independents. Another thing is that Palin has become a liability to McCain in the latest polls. With the economy driving the polls could you imagine Romney addressing our crisis verses McCain or Palin? There was no way to see when this all would come down but Romney might have saved McCain.
Is it over? Not yet, anyway. Too many things can happen but it is unlikely that anything will happen that could move the polls 10 points.
I do want to add: Don't believe all that you hear and only half what you see.
Is it over? Not yet, anyway. Too many things can happen but it is unlikely that anything will happen that could move the polls 10 points.
I do want to add: Don't believe all that you hear and only half what you see.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Can McCain win?
There is so little time for McCain to win. He is clearly behind and even though numbers are starting to narrow in the polls things are stacked against McCain.
McCain might benefit from the Bradley effect (voting against a black candidate while telling pollsters you will vote for him) but I think that will prove to be negligible. We just didn't see much of it in the primaries. New Hampshire stands out as a possibility but it will take far more than New Hampshire voting McCain for Obama to lose.
From my perspective only a very significant event could put McCain over the top. Something like a terrorist attack, a tremendous controversy or moral lapse on Obama's part would be required. If Tony Rezko pointed out something illegal (and gave evidence) you might see something. Joe the plumber may move votes a percentage point in the Rust Belt but it will not get McCain elected.
I believe that he needs something bigger. Obama is very close to closing the deal with just enough voters and McCain can't put enough distance between himself and this administration (who the voters blame for most of our ills).
Only two weeks from Tuesday and we may have the most liberal government since the 1960's.
McCain might benefit from the Bradley effect (voting against a black candidate while telling pollsters you will vote for him) but I think that will prove to be negligible. We just didn't see much of it in the primaries. New Hampshire stands out as a possibility but it will take far more than New Hampshire voting McCain for Obama to lose.
From my perspective only a very significant event could put McCain over the top. Something like a terrorist attack, a tremendous controversy or moral lapse on Obama's part would be required. If Tony Rezko pointed out something illegal (and gave evidence) you might see something. Joe the plumber may move votes a percentage point in the Rust Belt but it will not get McCain elected.
I believe that he needs something bigger. Obama is very close to closing the deal with just enough voters and McCain can't put enough distance between himself and this administration (who the voters blame for most of our ills).
Only two weeks from Tuesday and we may have the most liberal government since the 1960's.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
McCain's last stand?
Tonight is the last debate, but how much will it matter? The Dow Jones Industrial average is more followed than the election and this is killing McCain.
Would some on Wall Street manipulate the market? Wouldn't be hard if you had enough money. sell one day and buy the next, over and over. It would take billions to do this but if you had enough you could get the computer buying and selling going and, guess what?! Obama is Prez.
Is this possible? Hard to say, but if enough billionaires wanted to do it they could. Hope it isn't true, but who knows.
Would some on Wall Street manipulate the market? Wouldn't be hard if you had enough money. sell one day and buy the next, over and over. It would take billions to do this but if you had enough you could get the computer buying and selling going and, guess what?! Obama is Prez.
Is this possible? Hard to say, but if enough billionaires wanted to do it they could. Hope it isn't true, but who knows.
McCain has a tall order and only prayer will get him in, it would seem. Bigger surprises might happen. Especially if ACORN gets nailed in enough states.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
A small turnaround?
The one thing that seems to have happened since the VP debate is that Obama's lead has stopped growing. There are some polls that seem to suggest that it has slightly reversed towards McCain.
Tonight's debate will be watched by far more than watched the first debate since it is not on a Friday like the first one was. Can McCain help himself tonight? Sure. This one is a town hall type meeting and favors McCain's style. Will it be enough? Unlikely, unless Obama gets a "deer in the headlights" moment or just bombs a question.
As it stands now Obama is well ahead and unless McCain/Palin do some real damage (or Obama) it is a tough road to win for McCain.
Tonight's debate will be watched by far more than watched the first debate since it is not on a Friday like the first one was. Can McCain help himself tonight? Sure. This one is a town hall type meeting and favors McCain's style. Will it be enough? Unlikely, unless Obama gets a "deer in the headlights" moment or just bombs a question.
As it stands now Obama is well ahead and unless McCain/Palin do some real damage (or Obama) it is a tough road to win for McCain.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Is the race over?
Technically no, however it is very close to being over. Even though there is still nearly a month left Obama has a very commanding lead in popular vote, the swing states and the most important, the electoral college polls.
Why? The economy and McCain's handling of it is foremost. Obama doesn't know any more about the economy than McCain but McCain handled it by appearing with knee jerk reactions to everything that happened. It may not be what happened but that is how it appeared. Obama looked more presidential. Remember this that voters are strongly leaning Democrat. The election hinges on their trust of Obama. If Obama gets over that threshold he wins. In the last two weeks he has accomplished that and short of a significant tide he will be our 45th president.
Also, Palin has not been able to stem the tide for McCain. That is a lot to ask of a VP candidate but she might have done it had it not been for the above facts and her poor interviews. My guess is that she will be the Republican front runner in 2012. She might want to wait until 2018 to run against Hillary, unless Obama falters by 2012.
Is there any chance that McCain can win? Of course, but I wouldn't bet on it. The hill has become very steep. Slinging mud will bring those numbers closer, I would think, but even that is no guarantee.
I will say this that 27 days in elections can be a long time and if any serious charge comes against Obama or there is a significant terrorist or international event things could swing back McCain's way but don't count on it.
Why? The economy and McCain's handling of it is foremost. Obama doesn't know any more about the economy than McCain but McCain handled it by appearing with knee jerk reactions to everything that happened. It may not be what happened but that is how it appeared. Obama looked more presidential. Remember this that voters are strongly leaning Democrat. The election hinges on their trust of Obama. If Obama gets over that threshold he wins. In the last two weeks he has accomplished that and short of a significant tide he will be our 45th president.
Also, Palin has not been able to stem the tide for McCain. That is a lot to ask of a VP candidate but she might have done it had it not been for the above facts and her poor interviews. My guess is that she will be the Republican front runner in 2012. She might want to wait until 2018 to run against Hillary, unless Obama falters by 2012.
Is there any chance that McCain can win? Of course, but I wouldn't bet on it. The hill has become very steep. Slinging mud will bring those numbers closer, I would think, but even that is no guarantee.
I will say this that 27 days in elections can be a long time and if any serious charge comes against Obama or there is a significant terrorist or international event things could swing back McCain's way but don't count on it.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Palin bringing them in
60,000 showed up at the Villages in central Florida to see Sarah Palin. That is the largest crowd of the year for the Republicans. She has real star power and has energized Republicans in a way not seen in quite some time.
In '04 fear motivated the Right. They felt Kerry would make us velnerable. Now it is clean house in Washington and Sarah is leading the way. There is something about her "frontier woman" appeal that is contagious. It is a Obamamania in reverse. She is bringing new life to a discouraged party. As things settle down with the economy, expect to get a huge amount of Sarah news floating around. People just want to see her.
In many respects Obama is old news, Sarah is new news. The things to watch are an October surprise of news that hurts her or the possibility that people are bored of her by election time. We'll see. I'm guessing that she isn't boring.
In '04 fear motivated the Right. They felt Kerry would make us velnerable. Now it is clean house in Washington and Sarah is leading the way. There is something about her "frontier woman" appeal that is contagious. It is a Obamamania in reverse. She is bringing new life to a discouraged party. As things settle down with the economy, expect to get a huge amount of Sarah news floating around. People just want to see her.
In many respects Obama is old news, Sarah is new news. The things to watch are an October surprise of news that hurts her or the possibility that people are bored of her by election time. We'll see. I'm guessing that she isn't boring.
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