This is an excellent article, filled with much wisdom:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/what_to_do_about_pakistan.html
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Obama picks Biden
His best choice, over all. One problem is he doesn't bring in Hillary's God and Guns supporters, though.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
New numbers and a new state in swing state catagories
Here are the new numbers:
6 Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Ohio McCain +1.5
Michigan Obama +3.2
Minnesota Obama +2.6
Colorado McCain +0.5
Virginia McCain +0.6
Florida McCain +1.8
McCain has been slowly but surely picking up steam in the swing states. Currently he is competitive in Michigan and Minnesota. Those two are close to must win states for Obama, not just for his electoral vote count but for what those states have in common with other similar makeup states. If Obama loses one of those Ohio is sure to fall to McCain and that would put pressure on Wisconsin. Virginia and Colorado are very close but have recently switched in the average towards McCain.
It has not been a good month for Obama. It may seem an eternity ago but Obama has had a slow bleed since he went to the Middle East and Europe. Instead of looking presidential (he did to 200,000 Germans) he seemed to have made Foreign Policy a front page issue, where McCain certainly leads Obama. For Obama to lead he must make ground on the economy. It strikes me as obsurd to not see him pounding that like Clinton did against Bush. Of course there is no Perot to hammer the theme along with him this time.
The press has things wrong again. Conservative values are held by about 52-53% of the voters. As Obama gets vetted (exposed for his views and skeletons) he becomes more vulnerable.
6 Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Ohio McCain +1.5
Michigan Obama +3.2
Minnesota Obama +2.6
Colorado McCain +0.5
Virginia McCain +0.6
Florida McCain +1.8
McCain has been slowly but surely picking up steam in the swing states. Currently he is competitive in Michigan and Minnesota. Those two are close to must win states for Obama, not just for his electoral vote count but for what those states have in common with other similar makeup states. If Obama loses one of those Ohio is sure to fall to McCain and that would put pressure on Wisconsin. Virginia and Colorado are very close but have recently switched in the average towards McCain.
It has not been a good month for Obama. It may seem an eternity ago but Obama has had a slow bleed since he went to the Middle East and Europe. Instead of looking presidential (he did to 200,000 Germans) he seemed to have made Foreign Policy a front page issue, where McCain certainly leads Obama. For Obama to lead he must make ground on the economy. It strikes me as obsurd to not see him pounding that like Clinton did against Bush. Of course there is no Perot to hammer the theme along with him this time.
The press has things wrong again. Conservative values are held by about 52-53% of the voters. As Obama gets vetted (exposed for his views and skeletons) he becomes more vulnerable.
VP announcements
Obama is about to announce his VP pick. The short lists for both have been discussed for days but it is probably safe to say that Obama has his pick ready. There will be an announcement made by text message to his supporters and the press very soon, I would guess. The name has been kept close to the vest and has not yet had any leak. A leak might be part of the strategy but we will see.
McCain may have his guy or gal also but it is entirely possible that he may have a strategy also that will be affected by who Obama picks. A sad but true part of the process that makes this more of a chess game than picking the best candidates. Winning is a contest and had been since our country started its election process.
I'm convinced that neither candidate wants things to become all about sound bites. That, though, the the reality of public races, the better the sound bite the better you do.
Obama will probably pick someone that is long on foreign policy, such as Evan Bayh, or Joe Biden. McCain's choice is harder to see at the moment. Will he go with the economic pick such as Romney or shake up the water with a pick like Tom Ridge or Condi Rice? We will be seeing the answer soon and expect that McCain will try and steal a little thunder from Obama with announcing his a day after. It is all about stealing each others headlines.
McCain may have his guy or gal also but it is entirely possible that he may have a strategy also that will be affected by who Obama picks. A sad but true part of the process that makes this more of a chess game than picking the best candidates. Winning is a contest and had been since our country started its election process.
I'm convinced that neither candidate wants things to become all about sound bites. That, though, the the reality of public races, the better the sound bite the better you do.
Obama will probably pick someone that is long on foreign policy, such as Evan Bayh, or Joe Biden. McCain's choice is harder to see at the moment. Will he go with the economic pick such as Romney or shake up the water with a pick like Tom Ridge or Condi Rice? We will be seeing the answer soon and expect that McCain will try and steal a little thunder from Obama with announcing his a day after. It is all about stealing each others headlines.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Cavuto states that Dems are defeated for Presidency
Neil is predicting a defeat for Obama, in fact is close to guaranteeing it. It seems so out of character for him I decided to put the link here:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/cavuto-democrats/
Still, I'm not yet convinced. There is still nearly 3 months left and that is an eternity in politics. Case in point: spent much time lately thinking about Reverend Wright, Obama's old preacher? Almost a non-issue. How about people bitterly clinging to their religion and guns or what about William Ayers? These became significant stories that have nearly disappeared. They may come back but they definitely aren't big news a couple of months after their revelation.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/cavuto-democrats/
Still, I'm not yet convinced. There is still nearly 3 months left and that is an eternity in politics. Case in point: spent much time lately thinking about Reverend Wright, Obama's old preacher? Almost a non-issue. How about people bitterly clinging to their religion and guns or what about William Ayers? These became significant stories that have nearly disappeared. They may come back but they definitely aren't big news a couple of months after their revelation.
A tightening race
The election will be decided by the voting of about 10 states, known as swing states. The RCP average puts 6 of these states below in the closeness of the error ratio that compares the averages of the significant polls and averages them to see where things stand. As you can see that only Michigan is over 3% points, close to the normal 3 to 5% point error rate of these types of polling.
You can see how close the race is. Pennsylvania could fall into this, along with Nevada. Some other events could push some states toward one candidate or the other.
All said this is a very close race. Much will be decided in the next 3 months and a lot will happen by Labor day. Hold on to your seats it will be some ride.
Colorado McCain +0.5
Virginia McCain +0.6
Missouri McCain +2.3
Michigan Obama +3.2
Ohio Obama +0.5
Florida McCain +1.8
You can see how close the race is. Pennsylvania could fall into this, along with Nevada. Some other events could push some states toward one candidate or the other.
All said this is a very close race. Much will be decided in the next 3 months and a lot will happen by Labor day. Hold on to your seats it will be some ride.
Colorado McCain +0.5
Virginia McCain +0.6
Missouri McCain +2.3
Michigan Obama +3.2
Ohio Obama +0.5
Florida McCain +1.8
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