The election will be decided by the voting of about 10 states, known as swing states. The RCP average puts 6 of these states below in the closeness of the error ratio that compares the averages of the significant polls and averages them to see where things stand. As you can see that only Michigan is over 3% points, close to the normal 3 to 5% point error rate of these types of polling.
You can see how close the race is. Pennsylvania could fall into this, along with Nevada. Some other events could push some states toward one candidate or the other.
All said this is a very close race. Much will be decided in the next 3 months and a lot will happen by Labor day. Hold on to your seats it will be some ride.
Colorado McCain +0.5
Virginia McCain +0.6
Missouri McCain +2.3
Michigan Obama +3.2
Ohio Obama +0.5
Florida McCain +1.8
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