The Democratic convention starts in just over a week with the Republicans following soon after. In three weeks were are going to have the election in full swing. It might even be decided, more or less. What happens in August has had huge impacts before (one of many examples is that Swift Boat veterans made a commercial that brought up very uncomfortable memories of Kerry to veterans, cutting his legs out from under him).
Campaigns have set themselves up with this being about Obama. Change or weakness are the pictures that are being painted of him. The factors that I see at the moment are which of the bases are going to be most fired up for their candidate (or scared of the other) and where do the independents go.
Both are important. A lukewarm base can hurt. The independents will not be the only ones deciding this. Hillary's voters (and John Edwards) will also play a significant part. Her endorsement will ring hollow. Her heart is not with Obama, even with her game-face on for the convention. She still has some rather upset supporters. Eight more years might make her unelectable.
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