Russia Departs?

Condi Rice has just hand delivered a "truce" between Georgia and Russia. It will be interesting how it all plays out but all things considered it is looking the best it has, so far. Bush will get little credit and much of the blame. It appears to me that he is going to have a short term poor legacy and a very good long term legacy, similar to Truman who has had the same.

The back room deals that put this together may never be known. One must believe that there were threats and carrots aplenty. One significant threat: the Winter Olympics are coming in 18 months or so to Russia (very close to the Georgian border). A boycott of that would hurt the Russians publicly and they are obviously sensitive to their standing in the world. Maybe the Russians will get to look at Bigfoot first, one never knows.

Back on a serious note, we have seen a very serious situation. Russia is looking for respect (Putin has seen to it that his people think they are dissed around the world, when the opposite has been true). He will have a significant downfall down the road (my prediction). Guys like him get caught and fall a long way.

The Russians appear to be leaving Georgia proper. Whether they actually leave the breakaway provinces is yet to be seen. Their "peacekeeper force" will probably be around for some time.

Georgia has been run by a US educated president (and advisers) who gets how western and free economies work. If he is given time they will see significant growth (they already are) and be a model for the other economies of the former soviet nations. Their success probably has part to do with the invasion of Georgia in the first place. Russia doesn't want western style governments close by, especially ones friendly to the west. They will continue to undermine them when possible, with another invasion here or there possible. Poland and Ukraine beware!