The election is about to kick into high gear

The Democratic convention starts in just over a week with the Republicans following soon after. In three weeks were are going to have the election in full swing. It might even be decided, more or less. What happens in August has had huge impacts before (one of many examples is that Swift Boat veterans made a commercial that brought up very uncomfortable memories of Kerry to veterans, cutting his legs out from under him).

Campaigns have set themselves up with this being about Obama. Change or weakness are the pictures that are being painted of him. The factors that I see at the moment are which of the bases are going to be most fired up for their candidate (or scared of the other) and where do the independents go.

Both are important. A lukewarm base can hurt. The independents will not be the only ones deciding this. Hillary's voters (and John Edwards) will also play a significant part. Her endorsement will ring hollow. Her heart is not with Obama, even with her game-face on for the convention. She still has some rather upset supporters. Eight more years might make her unelectable.

Obama, McCain to speak with Rick Warren

The prelude of the debates is held at a church, no less. Mega-church leader Rick Warren will be holding a double interview of the candidates this evening. They will be interviewed separate and will only see each other as ships passing in the night, so to speak.

This looks to help Obama most, though, it could help McCain with "soft" evangelicals, ones that are concerned as much or more with poverty, aids and Africa as abortion, school choice and national defence. McCain does not have these people in his pocket as Bush did.

Obama is trying to get the "bogey man" image that he is getting plastered with on talk radio, conservative pundits, and the internet. He will seek to come off as "one of them" or at least not to be feared.

McCain could come across as too critical of Obama and paint himself as an old angry man. That would hurt him with this group. They are evangelicals and they are most comfortable with Republicans, but are not lock step with them, especially now. He needs to come off as compassionate, which he has proven to be over the years.

Russia Departs?

Condi Rice has just hand delivered a "truce" between Georgia and Russia. It will be interesting how it all plays out but all things considered it is looking the best it has, so far. Bush will get little credit and much of the blame. It appears to me that he is going to have a short term poor legacy and a very good long term legacy, similar to Truman who has had the same.

The back room deals that put this together may never be known. One must believe that there were threats and carrots aplenty. One significant threat: the Winter Olympics are coming in 18 months or so to Russia (very close to the Georgian border). A boycott of that would hurt the Russians publicly and they are obviously sensitive to their standing in the world. Maybe the Russians will get to look at Bigfoot first, one never knows.

Back on a serious note, we have seen a very serious situation. Russia is looking for respect (Putin has seen to it that his people think they are dissed around the world, when the opposite has been true). He will have a significant downfall down the road (my prediction). Guys like him get caught and fall a long way.

The Russians appear to be leaving Georgia proper. Whether they actually leave the breakaway provinces is yet to be seen. Their "peacekeeper force" will probably be around for some time.

Georgia has been run by a US educated president (and advisers) who gets how western and free economies work. If he is given time they will see significant growth (they already are) and be a model for the other economies of the former soviet nations. Their success probably has part to do with the invasion of Georgia in the first place. Russia doesn't want western style governments close by, especially ones friendly to the west. They will continue to undermine them when possible, with another invasion here or there possible. Poland and Ukraine beware!

Dollar's rise

With the continued weakening of other currencies and in particular the softening of oil, gas and other commodities the dollar has had five good weeks. Much of that gain has been against the Euro and it probably will continue for some time with a blip here and there. Oil has continued its drop to $112 on the NY Mercantile. This will bode well for the US and Europe while hampering the oil producing nations. For one, it isn't helping the Russian bottom line.

It wasn't that long ago that oil reached $147 with +$200 looking a true reality. Short of some significant overseas developments (never count those out and those that benefit from them) oil could drop dramatically farther. There is too much of it at the moment in reserves around the world. Not near enough, if you ask me, though.

The developments could bring the economy's forecast up for the remaining months, maybe in time for election day. Still, there are some large hurdles ahead and the banking write offs are not done yet. We will certainly not see much relief in housing and autos until then.

The other side of the argument

Pat Buchanan gives the other side of the Russia vs Georgia conflict. Though I don't agree with all of this it certainly gives one a pause:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/blowback_from_bear_baiting.html

I want to balance Buchanan's comments with those of a editorial from the Economist. Looking at both of these will cause you to look at the bigger picture.

http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11921110&source=features_box1

McCain foresight

You can argue with McCain and several issues he holds but it would be hard to argue with his foresight. One might say that he was wrong on the war (history may yet vindicate it) but his judgement has been stellar since.

He wanted far more troops in the beginning of the conflict in Iraq. For all intensive purposes Al Qaeda would have been far less effective with boots on the ground and the Shiite death squads far less effective, if they even had existed.

Secondly, he stuck by the surge when it was rejected by nearly every other politician and most of the country. Not only was he brave to do this he was right on its effect. By the way, the surge was a strategy, far more than just more troops, put together by Petraeus and company with McCain part of the whole support process. The met and discussed stategy for its success.

He has been right about Putin. Dead right. While President Bush was giving him the benefit of the doubt, and our left and continental Europe (the UK is on a cold war footing with Russia after the hit on former Russians) enjoying muscle pics of him, McCain stated that when he looked in Putin's eyes he saw KGB.

These are not trivial and will come into the campaign. We will see these on display at the convention and after. Already this has come to affect the race and we will see more incidents that are going to cause a pause in those that might otherwise jump at Obama.

World events like the Georgian conflict will make a dent in this election and the greatly help McCain in the eyes of most independents and fire up the conservative base.

Obama is in more trouble than the polls show

This Russian incursion into Georgia will directly affect the Presidential election. Even with the distraction of the Olympics this has brought fear to many US citizens. Many of us lived with the fear of a war between the Soviets and the West. This is only going to help McCain. Watch the polls in the next week. I expect to see a slow move towards McCain and a bleed from Obama's campaign.

Also, check out this article from RCP. Tall order for Obama:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/why_barack_obama_will_not_win.html

Worthy of a read.

Will world events push the US for more Drilling?

As a general unease continues to creep into the US will pressure continue to build for drilling? If we see significant gas prices jump after the Russian adventure then you can bet we will see it increase.

Pelosi and Reed have already put together a plan with Congress to allow some drilling. Don't think for a second that they don't see what is going on. They know and have their own political agenda. They are going to increase their lead in congress (all signs point to this, however, things can change).

Their hope is that Obama will get elected and then they can drag the whole thing out until there is sufficient energy from other sources. Removing the ban on offshore drilling doesn't mean that Exxon is running out to sea to put up platforms in two weeks. There are going to be "extra permitting" that will be needed. It will takes years or decades to happen if they get their way. Their plan is dangerous enough, but now they want to sell oil from the strategic reserve to reduce the price of gas. It would affect prices but would also put us in a difficult spot if there was a significant disruption of oil. It is why we have it.

The Dems seem not to have learned anything from the Republicans. Keep playing politics and it will catch up to you. Job one for all politicians is to get reelected. They are setting the playing field to lose again.

Georgia and Russia at war

The Russians have provoked the Georgians to war. Russians have long wanted to control oil to Europe and to bring the former Soviet Union, if not together, at least, under its control. Taking on Georgia does both. If the former territories don't step up to the plate (they are going to need Europe and most certainly the US) and help Georgia there will be a slow chopping up of the rest of those countries.

Hitler did just this with Czechoslovakia.

On a related note, oil prices are sure to be driven up since a significant amount of oil goes to Europe through Georgia. Will the world have the guts to stand up to the Russians? I doubt it, but you never know. Western Europe should be looking long and hard at this.

Last comment on this. If the war continues then John McCain will be helped by all this. People just don't trust Obama to be able to handle such things. He doesn't have the experience to take on Putin (who really controls Russia, regardless of his stepping down). Could he learn? Of course, but like JFK with Kruskev, it will be on the job training. Americans will have a difficult time turning over the reigns to a young man that will need to be instructed in such things.

McCain may again be the beneficiary of world events.