It is truly a historic time when an African American can win a major party's nomination. If we look at how different times were 44 years ago the prospect is practically staggering. Obama is probably a statistical favorite, though it is going to be close for some time, if not the whole race. The lead will change hands more than once before this is all over.
It will be interesting to see how the meetings last night went between Hillary and Barack. Will there be a vice presidency involved? We'll see but I doubt it. I'm guessing we'll see a certain politician from Virginia. If Obama wins Virginia, McCain would be in serious trouble indeed.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Sunday, June 1, 2008
California in play?
It is premature and a stretch but California might come into play in this election. You probably think that is crazy with Obama up by 12 points in the RCP average. I'm hardly predicting a victory for McCain but it might get close enough that Obama must put significant resourses there, not to mention his time spent on the ground, in the state. Why, since it is solidly Dem? Two reasons, first is that there is going to be a constitutional ballot for gay marriage. McCain may not bring out Orange County but gay marriage will. Secondly, less mentioned but also important, is the strict guidelines that have been brought about in the state by a court ruling recently regarding homeschooling. Homeschools are an endangered group there at the moment. There is not a more militant conservative group in the nation. They are not going to stand idly by while judges carve them up. They aren't big fans of McCain, but that is changing quick.
These two issues are going to motivate the unmotivated. They are going to go for McCain. He won serious points going on Ellen's show and respectfully disagreeing with her about gay marriage. It was code for "I don't hate you but I don't approve of your lifestyle". Brilliant, for most of Ellen's listener's weren't going to vote for him but it made all the major news programs. A real coup.
Anna Quindlen from Newsweek stated that the gay marriage debate was over and love won. She is completely clueless. It is over?! Tell us that in November. I will make this prediction: California is going to overturn this courts decision. It will probably be decisive. If Oregon couldn't do it how in the world is California going to do it? On top of all that, people do not like judges telling them their vote was meaningless. This vote may even be more lopsided than the last one involving gay marriage. This one is far more significant, it gets put into the California constitution.
This will help McCain, and not just in California.
These two issues are going to motivate the unmotivated. They are going to go for McCain. He won serious points going on Ellen's show and respectfully disagreeing with her about gay marriage. It was code for "I don't hate you but I don't approve of your lifestyle". Brilliant, for most of Ellen's listener's weren't going to vote for him but it made all the major news programs. A real coup.
Anna Quindlen from Newsweek stated that the gay marriage debate was over and love won. She is completely clueless. It is over?! Tell us that in November. I will make this prediction: California is going to overturn this courts decision. It will probably be decisive. If Oregon couldn't do it how in the world is California going to do it? On top of all that, people do not like judges telling them their vote was meaningless. This vote may even be more lopsided than the last one involving gay marriage. This one is far more significant, it gets put into the California constitution.
This will help McCain, and not just in California.
Obama's church decision
To watch Obama's Q&A session regarding his decision to leave the church was painful. Having done years of public speaking it was obvious that his mind was continually searching for answers to questions. At times he seemed completely unable to articulate what he wished to say. It actually reminded me of the rambling debate that involved Perot's choice for Vice President (Remember Admiral Stockdale?). I actually had to turn that one off. I got close on this one also. If anyone thinks that Obama is going to be a shoe-in during the debates they are in for a real stomach ache.
Obama has become clearly gun shy. He looks "handled" as in having political handlers. You get gun shy when everything you say is parsed and thrown back at you. If the guy could only sit there and make speeches we'd be discussing how big his margin of victory would be. That is clearly not the case regardless of what Bob Beckel is saying (don't get me wrong, he is one smart guy, but he is a homer for the Dems).
I'm making this prediction: short of some disasterous event in McCain's run, Obama will be toast if he doesn't get back to what he does best, and that is stand, unchalleged, making oratory history. The kind that sends a chill up Chris Matthew's leg. Thanks to Hillary that is a taller order today.
Obama has become clearly gun shy. He looks "handled" as in having political handlers. You get gun shy when everything you say is parsed and thrown back at you. If the guy could only sit there and make speeches we'd be discussing how big his margin of victory would be. That is clearly not the case regardless of what Bob Beckel is saying (don't get me wrong, he is one smart guy, but he is a homer for the Dems).
I'm making this prediction: short of some disasterous event in McCain's run, Obama will be toast if he doesn't get back to what he does best, and that is stand, unchalleged, making oratory history. The kind that sends a chill up Chris Matthew's leg. Thanks to Hillary that is a taller order today.
McCain's challenge
McCain has one tall hill to climb. He has been chosen as the Republican presidential hopeful but does he have a chance? Many seem to think that he does, but he is no shoe in. Unlike Obama and Hillary he has not faced significant fire yet. There are going to be some significant attacks (though I suspect not near as bad as if Hillary had been the nominee). His positive/negative numbers will be affected soon enough.
If McCain is elected he will be the first elected that didn't have full support of the conservative base. Bush 41 was conservative enough for them the first run, considering that he was Reagan's vice president and had convinced them that he was one of them. McCain has not done that. There is not that excitement that has been there in the past. He does have this going for him, though. Repubs are far more likely to vote than Dems when they aren't excited. Also, older voters have made up a quarter of the voters. That is going to play into McCain's favor.
The Dems will pull together but it is not happening near fast enough for their leaders. Hillary has not reigned in her people yet and it is not looking like it is coming soon. Hillary wants to be prominent and most certainly will do what she might to pull off this nomination (ain't happening). She clearly must sense this but she wants to be the next nominee with full support of the Dems. She will make herself entitled to the next nomination. Dem leaders will promise it to her if she will jump fully behind Obama.
If McCain is elected he will be the first elected that didn't have full support of the conservative base. Bush 41 was conservative enough for them the first run, considering that he was Reagan's vice president and had convinced them that he was one of them. McCain has not done that. There is not that excitement that has been there in the past. He does have this going for him, though. Repubs are far more likely to vote than Dems when they aren't excited. Also, older voters have made up a quarter of the voters. That is going to play into McCain's favor.
The Dems will pull together but it is not happening near fast enough for their leaders. Hillary has not reigned in her people yet and it is not looking like it is coming soon. Hillary wants to be prominent and most certainly will do what she might to pull off this nomination (ain't happening). She clearly must sense this but she wants to be the next nominee with full support of the Dems. She will make herself entitled to the next nomination. Dem leaders will promise it to her if she will jump fully behind Obama.
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