California in play?

It is premature and a stretch but California might come into play in this election. You probably think that is crazy with Obama up by 12 points in the RCP average. I'm hardly predicting a victory for McCain but it might get close enough that Obama must put significant resourses there, not to mention his time spent on the ground, in the state. Why, since it is solidly Dem? Two reasons, first is that there is going to be a constitutional ballot for gay marriage. McCain may not bring out Orange County but gay marriage will. Secondly, less mentioned but also important, is the strict guidelines that have been brought about in the state by a court ruling recently regarding homeschooling. Homeschools are an endangered group there at the moment. There is not a more militant conservative group in the nation. They are not going to stand idly by while judges carve them up. They aren't big fans of McCain, but that is changing quick.

These two issues are going to motivate the unmotivated. They are going to go for McCain. He won serious points going on Ellen's show and respectfully disagreeing with her about gay marriage. It was code for "I don't hate you but I don't approve of your lifestyle". Brilliant, for most of Ellen's listener's weren't going to vote for him but it made all the major news programs. A real coup.

Anna Quindlen from Newsweek stated that the gay marriage debate was over and love won. She is completely clueless. It is over?! Tell us that in November. I will make this prediction: California is going to overturn this courts decision. It will probably be decisive. If Oregon couldn't do it how in the world is California going to do it? On top of all that, people do not like judges telling them their vote was meaningless. This vote may even be more lopsided than the last one involving gay marriage. This one is far more significant, it gets put into the California constitution.

This will help McCain, and not just in California.