McCain's challenge

McCain has one tall hill to climb. He has been chosen as the Republican presidential hopeful but does he have a chance? Many seem to think that he does, but he is no shoe in. Unlike Obama and Hillary he has not faced significant fire yet. There are going to be some significant attacks (though I suspect not near as bad as if Hillary had been the nominee). His positive/negative numbers will be affected soon enough.

If McCain is elected he will be the first elected that didn't have full support of the conservative base. Bush 41 was conservative enough for them the first run, considering that he was Reagan's vice president and had convinced them that he was one of them. McCain has not done that. There is not that excitement that has been there in the past. He does have this going for him, though. Repubs are far more likely to vote than Dems when they aren't excited. Also, older voters have made up a quarter of the voters. That is going to play into McCain's favor.

The Dems will pull together but it is not happening near fast enough for their leaders. Hillary has not reigned in her people yet and it is not looking like it is coming soon. Hillary wants to be prominent and most certainly will do what she might to pull off this nomination (ain't happening). She clearly must sense this but she wants to be the next nominee with full support of the Dems. She will make herself entitled to the next nomination. Dem leaders will promise it to her if she will jump fully behind Obama.