Where the election stands today

The RCP average of polling show only a 2.6% difference between the candidates with Obama on top. This doesn't show the swing state numbers or if one poll is likely voters or registered voters (likely voters polls are usually more accurate). Having said that there is no obvious reason that the race should be this close.

Recent history shows the Republicans being in the hole by 10 to 16 points by the beginning of summer in the race. The race then takes a change, usually some controversy. Swift boat or Willie Horton (rapist let go on a weekend visit under then Gov Dukakis) Geradine Feraro became an issue and cost Mondale serious points.

Dole could not get any traction against Clinton but still made up huge ground before the election. Plus, both he and Bush Sr had to deal with Ross Perot who kept Clinton from ever getting a majority.

With nearly everything breaking Obama's way why can't he get McCain off his back in polling? The answer is complex but starting with Hillary and continued by the McCain campaign is the doubts about Obama. 200,000 cheering Germans may play well in Europe but it doesn't lend any credence in Nebraska or Alabama. This election has become one of Obama.

There are other factors playing also. Energy is seen as being held hostage by the Dems. They are watching the polls also and there is a lot of nervousness out there. They have promised the environment movement quite a bit and will be seen as traitors to allow drilling. The environmental movement has wanted these energy prices for ages and they aren't about to give them up and mess with pristine areas. They seem to be fine with other nations that aren't near as cautious as we are, but they cannot control them, yet.

To me, Obama is in trouble. If he cannot shake McCain by the end of the conventions then there is going to be a real problem. There is just not the time to make Obama a statesman that crosses political lines and can show that his experience is up to snuff. The Dem convention will try to do that but his "lite" accomplishments just can't make him seem presidential.

Obama will probably stoop to serious attacks on McCain. That may backfire but he must bring doubts about McCain's judgment. Energy costs and the surge's clear success have put some serious points towards McCain and could help congressional races also.