Race snapshot

1. The congressional races have tightened up significantly. With a generic Dem running against a Repub the numbers were favoring the Dems in double digits weeks ago. They have been tightening but have become much closer after the Rep convention (much in response to the Palin pick). One Gallup poll had the Republicans up by 5%. RCP average is about 3% for Dems. Pelosi and Reed are real nervous (not to mention the Daily Kos and netroots groups). Fear is probably a more accurate term.

2 Obama is on a slide that has not been righted yet. We should be seeing a contraction from the Republican bump of the convention and we are not. Though Obama still leads in the electoral count if you keep the tossup states in there the more significant thing is that McCain now leads by 20 points if you do not count tossup states. He was probably 50 behind a month ago.

3. Sarah Palin is under fire. She must be brought down by the Dems. She is a threat not only to Obama but to the Dems as a whole (Dick Morris argued this point strongly). She is America, the America that the MSM/Hollywood types despise, but the Reagan Dems love. I fully expect to see her pounded like Bork and Justice Thomas. It is going to get merciless. She does have this going for her, she is a successful woman and a very hard target to hit.

4. The parts of polls that really count are the internals. The one that is really hurting Dems is white women. They have greatly moved towards McCain. There are several others. Possibly as significant is that Republicans are far more engaged and frankly excited. Huge shift. Attacks on Palin will most likely energize them far more.

Note: Michael Reagan has many times stated that there would never be another Ronald Reagan
and told Repubs to get over it. He has changed his mind. He said that watching Palin he saw his dad wearing high heels. Amazing, and we are seeing many agree.