Having read Fred Barnes this morning I was struck by the pundints arguments of the Repubs being in trouble. There is no question that there are many things today that favor a Dem. The problem is that things are going to be very different in the Fall. We couldn't know half of them that will impact this and other races.
Economic figures are going to be different, possibly significantly different. Israel may get Netanyahu as a PM making a strike on Iran very likely. McCain moved up significantly in the primaries (probably wouldn't have one without the event) with the assasination in Pakistan. Iraq appears to be settling down and if the US and Iran get into a tangle the race will also change. Many factors will be entering the fray soon enough and they will have an impact on this race.
Another thing that hurts Obama (the likely candidate) is the race factor. Bill's comments in South Carolina appear to have started the Dem primary into a division between Blacks and rich white liberals against hispanics and working class whites. This according to Dick Morris. That division will not completely end. His San Fran comments will affect the working class vote. A 527 will make sure we don't forget them.
McCain is not that different than Hillary on many issues. Many of those working class whites will trust McCain more than Obama and Obama will have a challenge with some Hispanics, especially in Florida.
Another thing that has been mentioned is the mass defection of Repubs to the Dem side. How many of those were part of "operation chaos" by Rush? Will we see a significant retreat after each primary of those heading back? That has yet to be seen.
This has been the best, or at least most interesting, election in many years.
There is frankly no way to know who will win, unless , of course, you are a conspiracy enthusiast. Then the decision has already been made.
The rest of us will wait with baited breath!
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