The ground work of the election is being laid

Obama's and Hillary's split in Oregon and Kentucky is not boding well for Obama. It is now clear that their is a divide in Democrat land that is spilling into the general election.

This election is like no other. Can McCain delve into the Dems Reagan Democrats in Nov? It is becoming more and more likely. It won't be the huge numbers that are saying they will defect, but it could be significant. If there is a major event internationally, outside of Iraq, we will see this group slide towards McCain.

The blowup recently over international diplomacy and whether or not a sitting President can sit down and talk to our enemies without preconditions is going to be interesting.

NY Times has a great article on this: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/22/opinion/22thrall.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

The election could hang in the balance over this battleground. How? Obama seeks to tie McCain to Bush in every way. Bush and McCain clearly agree on this point. Whether that works or not will be seen in coming months but it seems problematic, from this writer's perspective, for Obama to continue a discourse in an area that he is considered weakest. Clearly differing demographics prefer a different course than others, but if Obama is going to win the blue collar worker he is not speaking their language. They want a president that will be tough on our enemies.

Foreign affairs are not going to give Obama the election. He needs to win it domestically or he is probably dead in the water. If Iraq was still without progress, or worse, in full blown civil war he would have the edge. Why, when Bush is held in such disdain? Just look at all the Democratic foreign policy experts trying to spin what Obama has said. They are trying to define the word preconditions out of existence. He is backtracking but unwilling to admit his error. Obama hasn't a leg to stand on to show how he might improve the Middle East situation. His only descriptive comments are to bring the troops home (vague on all other points). He will be pummeled about his lack of experience.

Still, one long election to go.

Paul